Incumbent Republican Mike Ezell holds a commanding position in Mississippi’s 4th congressional district race due to the seat’s longstanding conservative tilt, reflected in its R+21 partisan voter index and consistent Safe or Solid Republican ratings from forecasters. Ezell, a former sheriff serving on the Natural Resources and Transportation committees, secured renomination with 84 percent in the March 2026 primary. Democratic nominee Jeffrey Hulum III, a state representative and retired Army sergeant major, won his primary but faces structural headwinds in a district that has not elected a Democrat since 2008. Ezell’s substantial fundraising advantage and focus on local infrastructure and Coast Guard funding reinforce trader consensus, though an unexpected national shift or late-breaking controversy could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMS-04 House Election Winner
MS-04 House Election Winner
$40,274 Vol.
$40,274 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Mike Ezell (R)
97%
Jeffrey Hulum III (D)
3%
$40,274 Vol.
$40,274 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Mike Ezell (R)
$25,185 Vol.
97%
Jeffrey Hulum III (D)
$15,090 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Ezell holds a commanding position in Mississippi’s 4th congressional district race due to the seat’s longstanding conservative tilt, reflected in its R+21 partisan voter index and consistent Safe or Solid Republican ratings from forecasters. Ezell, a former sheriff serving on the Natural Resources and Transportation committees, secured renomination with 84 percent in the March 2026 primary. Democratic nominee Jeffrey Hulum III, a state representative and retired Army sergeant major, won his primary but faces structural headwinds in a district that has not elected a Democrat since 2008. Ezell’s substantial fundraising advantage and focus on local infrastructure and Coast Guard funding reinforce trader consensus, though an unexpected national shift or late-breaking controversy could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$40,274End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Ezell holds a commanding position in Mississippi’s 4th congressional district race due to the seat’s longstanding conservative tilt, reflected in its R+21 partisan voter index and consistent Safe or Solid Republican ratings from forecasters. Ezell, a former sheriff serving on the Natural Resources and Transportation committees, secured renomination with 84 percent in the March 2026 primary. Democratic nominee Jeffrey Hulum III, a state representative and retired Army sergeant major, won his primary but faces structural headwinds in a district that has not elected a Democrat since 2008. Ezell’s substantial fundraising advantage and focus on local infrastructure and Coast Guard funding reinforce trader consensus, though an unexpected national shift or late-breaking controversy could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$40,274End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Ezell holds a commanding position in Mississippi’s 4th congressional district race due to the seat’s longstanding conservative tilt, reflected in its R+21 partisan voter index and consistent Safe or Solid Republican ratings from forecasters. Ezell, a former sheriff serving on the Natural Resources and Transportation committees, secured renomination with 84 percent in the March 2026 primary. Democratic nominee Jeffrey Hulum III, a state representative and retired Army sergeant major, won his primary but faces structural headwinds in a district that has not elected a Democrat since 2008. Ezell’s substantial fundraising advantage and focus on local infrastructure and Coast Guard funding reinforce trader consensus, though an unexpected national shift or late-breaking controversy could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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