Nashville SC’s league-leading regular-season record of 23 wins, 3 losses and 8 draws, plus a +46 goal difference, underpins their 37.5% implied probability as Eastern Conference frontrunners. Inter Miami’s 27% reflects a potent attack that produced 80 goals but defensive vulnerabilities that allowed 59 concessions. New England Revolution, Chicago Fire, Charlotte FC and Philadelphia Union sit in the 8–12% range after securing playoff berths with balanced mid-table finishes. The single-elimination playoff format, best-of-three series and potential for upsets among the eight qualifiers create variance that prevents any side from exceeding 40%, keeping the market competitive despite Nashville’s regular-season dominance.