Nashville SC’s record-setting regular season, capped by a 23-3-8 finish and league-high 77 points with the stingiest defense in MLS history, has positioned the Supporters’ Shield winners as the clear market leader in the MLS Cup 2026 betting. Their consistency, fewest losses, and home-field edge through early playoff rounds underpin the 25.9% implied probability. Vancouver Whitecaps FC’s Western Conference title and balanced attack support their 15.2% share, while Inter Miami CF’s high-scoring attack and defending-champion pedigree drive their 17.5% despite greater goals conceded. The remaining field stays tightly bunched because the best-of-three format and single-elimination stages reward recent form and roster depth over regular-season points alone, leaving realistic paths for several contenders to advance deep.