St. Louis Shock enter the MLP St. Louis 2026 final as clear favorites after posting a 4-0 group stage record in Group A, leveraging strong home-court energy at Chaifetz Arena and momentum from their 2025 MLP Cup title. Their consistent results across mixed and gender doubles have solidified trader consensus around their 70% implied probability. Los Angeles Mad Drops, paced by Ben Johns and a balanced roster, earned the top spot in Group B with an undefeated prior event in Dallas and remain the primary challenger at 24.5%, though they face a tough stylistic matchup and travel demands. Recent group play outcomes and the Super Sunday championship format continue to drive these probabilities in the regular-season tournament standings race.