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icon for MLB: ERA Leader
Sports·MLB

MLB: ERA Leader

icon for MLB: ERA Leader
Sports·MLB

MLB: ERA Leader

Jacob Misiorowski 75%

Cam Schlittler 24%

Max Fried 3.3%

Logan Webb 3.2%

Polymarket

$1,771,112 Vol.

Jacob Misiorowski 75%

Cam Schlittler 24%

Max Fried 3.3%

Logan Webb 3.2%

Polymarket

$1,771,112 Vol.

Jacob Misiorowski

$96 Vol.

75%

Cam Schlittler

$60 Vol.

24%

Max Fried

$329 Vol.

3%

Logan Webb

$844 Vol.

3%

Tarik Skubal

$672 Vol.

3%

Nick Pivetta

$405 Vol.

2%

Paul Skenes

$3,458 Vol.

2%

Dylan Cease

$9,026 Vol.

2%

Andrew Abbott

$979 Vol.

1%

Brayan Bello

$778 Vol.

1%

Taj Bradley

$459 Vol.

1%

Hunter Brown

$917 Vol.

1%

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

$2,770 Vol.

1%

Garrett Crochet

$436 Vol.

1%

Bryce Elder

$413 Vol.

1%

José Soriano

$1,833 Vol.

1%

Bryan Woo

$630,282 Vol.

1%

Michael Wacha

$348 Vol.

1%

Eduardo Rodriguez

$1,018 Vol.

1%

Clay Holmes

$329 Vol.

1%

Carmen Mlodzinski

$471 Vol.

1%

Nolan McLean

$341 Vol.

1%

Freddy Peralta

$307 Vol.

1%

Chad Patrick

$291 Vol.

1%

Reynaldo López

$317 Vol.

1%

Jeffrey Springs

$1,092,637 Vol.

<1%

Connelly Early

$308 Vol.

<1%

Joe Ryan

$230 Vol.

<1%

Matthew Boyd

$394 Vol.

<1%

Seth Lugo

$468 Vol.

<1%

Shohei Ohtani

$9,736 Vol.

<1%

Emerson Hancock

$427 Vol.

<1%

Gavin Williams

$328 Vol.

<1%

Carlos Rodón

$224 Vol.

<1%

Cristopher Sánchez

$8,686 Vol.

<1%

Jacob deGrom

$738 Vol.

<1%

Merrill Kelly

$407 Vol.

<1%

Chris Sale

$96 Vol.

-

This market will resolve according to the pitcher who records the lowest earned run average among qualified pitchers during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the pitcher that records more innings pitched during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that records more strikeouts during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that walked fewer batters during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the pitcher whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jacob Misiorowski of the Milwaukee Brewers holds a commanding lead in the 2026 ERA race with a 1.86 mark across 169.1 innings, 15-5 record, 0.80 WHIP, and MLB-leading 13.1 K/9, backed by elite velocity that has produced record 100+ mph pitches. His consistent dominance, including recent scoreless outings and top rankings in FIP and WAR, has solidified trader consensus around his qualification and statistical edge over the final week. Contenders like Cam Schlittler and Chris Sale trail significantly in innings and run prevention, while established arms such as Tarik Skubal and Max Fried post higher ERAs despite strong supporting metrics. Late-season form and Brewers' playoff positioning further reinforce the market's heavy weighting toward Misiorowski as the season nears its close.

This market will resolve according to the pitcher who records the lowest earned run average among qualified pitchers during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the pitcher that records more innings pitched during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that records more strikeouts during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that walked fewer batters during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the pitcher whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the pitcher who records the lowest earned run average among qualified pitchers during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the pitcher that records more innings pitched during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that records more strikeouts during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that walked fewer batters during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the pitcher whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,771,112
End Date
Oct 16, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 4:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the pitcher who records the lowest earned run average among qualified pitchers during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the pitcher that records more innings pitched during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that records more strikeouts during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that walked fewer batters during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the pitcher whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jacob Misiorowski of the Milwaukee Brewers holds a commanding lead in the 2026 ERA race with a 1.86 mark across 169.1 innings, 15-5 record, 0.80 WHIP, and MLB-leading 13.1 K/9, backed by elite velocity that has produced record 100+ mph pitches. His consistent dominance, including recent scoreless outings and top rankings in FIP and WAR, has solidified trader consensus around his qualification and statistical edge over the final week. Contenders like Cam Schlittler and Chris Sale trail significantly in innings and run prevention, while established arms such as Tarik Skubal and Max Fried post higher ERAs despite strong supporting metrics. Late-season form and Brewers' playoff positioning further reinforce the market's heavy weighting toward Misiorowski as the season nears its close.

This market will resolve according to the pitcher who records the lowest earned run average among qualified pitchers during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the pitcher that records more innings pitched during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that records more strikeouts during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that walked fewer batters during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the pitcher whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the pitcher who records the lowest earned run average among qualified pitchers during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the pitcher that records more innings pitched during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that records more strikeouts during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that walked fewer batters during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the pitcher whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,771,112
End Date
Oct 16, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 4:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MLB: ERA Leader" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 38 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jacob Misiorowski" at 75%, followed by "Chris Sale" at 39%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 75¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MLB: ERA Leader" has generated $1.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 22, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MLB: ERA Leader," browse the 38 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MLB: ERA Leader" is "Jacob Misiorowski" at 75%, meaning the market assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Chris Sale" at 39%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MLB: ERA Leader" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.