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icon for MLB: ERA Leader
Sports·MLB

MLB: ERA Leader

icon for MLB: ERA Leader
Sports·MLB

MLB: ERA Leader

Jacob Misiorowski 88%

Cam Schlittler 6%

Brayan Bello 3.1%

Max Fried 2.9%

Polymarket

$1,772,203 Vol.

Jacob Misiorowski 88%

Cam Schlittler 6%

Brayan Bello 3.1%

Max Fried 2.9%

Polymarket

$1,772,203 Vol.

Jacob Misiorowski

$420 Vol.

88%

Cam Schlittler

$116 Vol.

6%

Brayan Bello

$818 Vol.

3%

Max Fried

$349 Vol.

3%

Logan Webb

$864 Vol.

3%

José Soriano

$1,853 Vol.

3%

Tarik Skubal

$692 Vol.

3%

Chris Sale

$136 Vol.

3%

Nick Pivetta

$425 Vol.

2%

Garrett Crochet

$456 Vol.

2%

Paul Skenes

$3,478 Vol.

2%

Hunter Brown

$937 Vol.

1%

Bryce Elder

$433 Vol.

1%

Taj Bradley

$479 Vol.

1%

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

$2,790 Vol.

1%

Bryan Woo

$630,302 Vol.

1%

Dylan Cease

$9,046 Vol.

1%

Michael Wacha

$368 Vol.

1%

Eduardo Rodriguez

$1,038 Vol.

1%

Clay Holmes

$349 Vol.

1%

Nolan McLean

$361 Vol.

1%

Freddy Peralta

$327 Vol.

1%

Carmen Mlodzinski

$491 Vol.

1%

Chad Patrick

$311 Vol.

<1%

Reynaldo López

$337 Vol.

<1%

Emerson Hancock

$447 Vol.

<1%

Jeffrey Springs

$1,092,657 Vol.

<1%

Connelly Early

$328 Vol.

<1%

Andrew Abbott

$999 Vol.

10%

Joe Ryan

$250 Vol.

<1%

Matthew Boyd

$414 Vol.

<1%

Gavin Williams

$348 Vol.

<1%

Carlos Rodón

$244 Vol.

<1%

Shohei Ohtani

$9,756 Vol.

<1%

Seth Lugo

$488 Vol.

<1%

Cristopher Sánchez

$8,686 Vol.

<1%

Jacob deGrom

$738 Vol.

<1%

Merrill Kelly

$407 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the pitcher who records the lowest earned run average among qualified pitchers during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the pitcher that records more innings pitched during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that records more strikeouts during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that walked fewer batters during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the pitcher whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jacob Misiorowski holds an overwhelming edge in the MLB ERA Leader market due to his dominant 2026 campaign with the Milwaukee Brewers. The 24-year-old right-hander sits at 1.86 ERA across 169.1 innings with a 0.80 WHIP, 13.1 K/9, and elite contact management that has limited opponents to a .160 batting average. His fastball velocity, strikeout dominance, and run-prevention metrics lead qualified starters, reflecting consistent excellence through late September. Recent shortened outings have preserved his health and innings total ahead of the playoffs while maintaining his edge. Challengers such as Cam Schlittler or others would need exceptional final starts combined with Misiorowski allowing runs in limited remaining work to close the gap, though his current form makes a significant reversal unlikely before the regular season concludes.

This market will resolve according to the pitcher who records the lowest earned run average among qualified pitchers during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the pitcher that records more innings pitched during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that records more strikeouts during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that walked fewer batters during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the pitcher whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the pitcher who records the lowest earned run average among qualified pitchers during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the pitcher that records more innings pitched during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that records more strikeouts during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that walked fewer batters during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the pitcher whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,772,203
End Date
Oct 16, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 4:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the pitcher who records the lowest earned run average among qualified pitchers during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the pitcher that records more innings pitched during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that records more strikeouts during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that walked fewer batters during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the pitcher whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jacob Misiorowski holds an overwhelming edge in the MLB ERA Leader market due to his dominant 2026 campaign with the Milwaukee Brewers. The 24-year-old right-hander sits at 1.86 ERA across 169.1 innings with a 0.80 WHIP, 13.1 K/9, and elite contact management that has limited opponents to a .160 batting average. His fastball velocity, strikeout dominance, and run-prevention metrics lead qualified starters, reflecting consistent excellence through late September. Recent shortened outings have preserved his health and innings total ahead of the playoffs while maintaining his edge. Challengers such as Cam Schlittler or others would need exceptional final starts combined with Misiorowski allowing runs in limited remaining work to close the gap, though his current form makes a significant reversal unlikely before the regular season concludes.

This market will resolve according to the pitcher who records the lowest earned run average among qualified pitchers during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the pitcher that records more innings pitched during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that records more strikeouts during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that walked fewer batters during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the pitcher whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the pitcher who records the lowest earned run average among qualified pitchers during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the pitcher that records more innings pitched during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that records more strikeouts during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that walked fewer batters during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the pitcher whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,772,203
End Date
Oct 16, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 4:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MLB: ERA Leader" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 38 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jacob Misiorowski" at 88%, followed by "Andrew Abbott" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 88¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 88% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MLB: ERA Leader" has generated $1.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 22, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MLB: ERA Leader," browse the 38 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MLB: ERA Leader" is "Jacob Misiorowski" at 88%, meaning the market assigns a 88% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Andrew Abbott" at 10%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MLB: ERA Leader" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.