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icon for Margin in vote to oust McCarthy?

Margin in vote to oust McCarthy?

icon for Margin in vote to oust McCarthy?

Margin in vote to oust McCarthy?

$19,768 Vol.

Oct 30, 2023
Polymarket

$19,768 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for <15

<15

$1,940 Vol.

Yes

icon for 15-50

15-50

$2,271 Vol.

No

icon for 51-100

51-100

$6,872 Vol.

No

icon for >100

>100

$8,685 Vol.

No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first vote after this market's inception to remove Rep. Kevin McCarthy from his position as Speaker of the House has a margin of fewer than 15 voting representatives. Otherwise the market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on the first vote to vacate the Speaker position that occurs by October 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. If there is no vote to remove McCarthy by then, this market will resolve to "No". The margin will be determined by the absolute difference between the number of "Yea" votes and "Nay" votes, as documented in official records or announcements from the U.S. House of Representatives (e.g. if 130 vote Yea, 160 vote Nay, and rest abstain, the absolute difference is |130 - 160| = 30). Note: The margin relevant for this market is the absolute difference, and thus always positive (regardless of outcome). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first vote after this market's inception to remove Rep. Kevin McCarthy from his position as Speaker of the House has a margin of between 15 and 50 voting representatives (inclusive). Otherwise the market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on the first vote to vacate the Speaker position that occurs by October 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. If there is no vote to remove McCarthy by then, this market will resolve to "No". The margin will be determined by the absolute difference between the number of "Yea" votes and "Nay" votes, as documented in official records or announcements from the U.S. House of Representatives (e.g. if 130 vote Yea, 160 vote Nay, and rest abstain, the absolute difference is |130 - 160| = 30). Note: The margin relevant for this market is the absolute difference, and thus always positive (regardless of outcome). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first vote after this market's inception to remove Rep. Kevin McCarthy from his position as Speaker of the House has a margin of between 51 and 100 voting representatives (inclusive). Otherwise the market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on the first vote to vacate the Speaker position that occurs by October 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. If there is no vote to remove McCarthy by then, this market will resolve to "No". The margin will be determined by the absolute difference between the number of "Yea" votes and "Nay" votes, as documented in official records or announcements from the U.S. House of Representatives (e.g. if 130 vote Yea, 160 vote Nay, and rest abstain, the absolute difference is |130 - 160| = 30). Note: The margin relevant for this market is the absolute difference, and thus always positive (regardless of outcome). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first vote after this market's inception to remove Rep. Kevin McCarthy from his position as Speaker of the House has a margin of greater than 100 voting representatives. Otherwise the market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on the first vote to vacate the Speaker position that occurs by October 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. If there is no vote to remove McCarthy by then, this market will resolve to "No". The margin will be determined by the absolute difference between the number of "Yea" votes and "Nay" votes, as documented in official records or announcements from the U.S. House of Representatives (e.g. if 130 vote Yea, 160 vote Nay, and rest abstain, the absolute difference is |130 - 160| = 30). Note: The margin relevant for this market is the absolute difference, and thus always positive (regardless of outcome). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first vote after this market's inception to remove Rep. Kevin McCarthy from his position as Speaker of the House has a margin of fewer than 15 voting representatives. Otherwise the market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on the first vote to vacate the Speaker position that occurs by October 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. If there is no vote to remove McCarthy by then, this market will resolve to "No".

The margin will be determined by the absolute difference between the number of "Yea" votes and "Nay" votes, as documented in official records or announcements from the U.S. House of Representatives (e.g. if 130 vote Yea, 160 vote Nay, and rest abstain, the absolute difference is |130 - 160| = 30).

Note: The margin relevant for this market is the absolute difference, and thus always positive (regardless of outcome).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$19,768
End Date
Oct 31, 2023
Market Opened
Oct 2, 2023, 8:24 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first vote after this market's inception to remove Rep. Kevin McCarthy from his position as Speaker of the House has a margin of fewer than 15 voting representatives. Otherwise the market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on the first vote to vacate the Speaker position that occurs by October 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. If there is no vote to remove McCarthy by then, this market will resolve to "No". The margin will be determined by the absolute difference between the number of "Yea" votes and "Nay" votes, as documented in official records or announcements from the U.S. House of Representatives (e.g. if 130 vote Yea, 160 vote Nay, and rest abstain, the absolute difference is |130 - 160| = 30). Note: The margin relevant for this market is the absolute difference, and thus always positive (regardless of outcome). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first vote after this market's inception to remove Rep. Kevin McCarthy from his position as Speaker of the House has a margin of fewer than 15 voting representatives. Otherwise the market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on the first vote to vacate the Speaker position that occurs by October 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. If there is no vote to remove McCarthy by then, this market will resolve to "No". The margin will be determined by the absolute difference between the number of "Yea" votes and "Nay" votes, as documented in official records or announcements from the U.S. House of Representatives (e.g. if 130 vote Yea, 160 vote Nay, and rest abstain, the absolute difference is |130 - 160| = 30). Note: The margin relevant for this market is the absolute difference, and thus always positive (regardless of outcome). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first vote after this market's inception to remove Rep. Kevin McCarthy from his position as Speaker of the House has a margin of between 15 and 50 voting representatives (inclusive). Otherwise the market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on the first vote to vacate the Speaker position that occurs by October 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. If there is no vote to remove McCarthy by then, this market will resolve to "No". The margin will be determined by the absolute difference between the number of "Yea" votes and "Nay" votes, as documented in official records or announcements from the U.S. House of Representatives (e.g. if 130 vote Yea, 160 vote Nay, and rest abstain, the absolute difference is |130 - 160| = 30). Note: The margin relevant for this market is the absolute difference, and thus always positive (regardless of outcome). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first vote after this market's inception to remove Rep. Kevin McCarthy from his position as Speaker of the House has a margin of between 51 and 100 voting representatives (inclusive). Otherwise the market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on the first vote to vacate the Speaker position that occurs by October 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. If there is no vote to remove McCarthy by then, this market will resolve to "No". The margin will be determined by the absolute difference between the number of "Yea" votes and "Nay" votes, as documented in official records or announcements from the U.S. House of Representatives (e.g. if 130 vote Yea, 160 vote Nay, and rest abstain, the absolute difference is |130 - 160| = 30). Note: The margin relevant for this market is the absolute difference, and thus always positive (regardless of outcome). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first vote after this market's inception to remove Rep. Kevin McCarthy from his position as Speaker of the House has a margin of greater than 100 voting representatives. Otherwise the market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on the first vote to vacate the Speaker position that occurs by October 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. If there is no vote to remove McCarthy by then, this market will resolve to "No". The margin will be determined by the absolute difference between the number of "Yea" votes and "Nay" votes, as documented in official records or announcements from the U.S. House of Representatives (e.g. if 130 vote Yea, 160 vote Nay, and rest abstain, the absolute difference is |130 - 160| = 30). Note: The margin relevant for this market is the absolute difference, and thus always positive (regardless of outcome). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first vote after this market's inception to remove Rep. Kevin McCarthy from his position as Speaker of the House has a margin of fewer than 15 voting representatives. Otherwise the market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on the first vote to vacate the Speaker position that occurs by October 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. If there is no vote to remove McCarthy by then, this market will resolve to "No".

The margin will be determined by the absolute difference between the number of "Yea" votes and "Nay" votes, as documented in official records or announcements from the U.S. House of Representatives (e.g. if 130 vote Yea, 160 vote Nay, and rest abstain, the absolute difference is |130 - 160| = 30).

Note: The margin relevant for this market is the absolute difference, and thus always positive (regardless of outcome).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$19,768
End Date
Oct 31, 2023
Market Opened
Oct 2, 2023, 8:24 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first vote after this market's inception to remove Rep. Kevin McCarthy from his position as Speaker of the House has a margin of fewer than 15 voting representatives. Otherwise the market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on the first vote to vacate the Speaker position that occurs by October 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. If there is no vote to remove McCarthy by then, this market will resolve to "No". The margin will be determined by the absolute difference between the number of "Yea" votes and "Nay" votes, as documented in official records or announcements from the U.S. House of Representatives (e.g. if 130 vote Yea, 160 vote Nay, and rest abstain, the absolute difference is |130 - 160| = 30). Note: The margin relevant for this market is the absolute difference, and thus always positive (regardless of outcome). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Margin in vote to oust McCarthy?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "<15" at 100%, followed by "15-50" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Margin in vote to oust McCarthy?" has generated $19.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 3, 2023. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Margin in vote to oust McCarthy?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Margin in vote to oust McCarthy?" is "<15" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "15-50" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Margin in vote to oust McCarthy?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.