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icon for Ilya's next company?

Ilya's next company?

icon for Ilya's next company?

Ilya's next company?

Google/Deepmind 100.0%

Anthropic 100.0%

Apple 100.0%

X 100.0%

Polymarket

$83,262 Vol.

Google/Deepmind 100.0%

Anthropic 100.0%

Apple 100.0%

X 100.0%

Polymarket

$83,262 Vol.

icon for Google/Deepmind

Google/Deepmind

$13,891 Vol.

No

icon for Anthropic

Anthropic

$16,962 Vol.

No

icon for Apple

Apple

$7,487 Vol.

No

icon for X

X

$15,799 Vol.

No

icon for New organization

New organization

$7,754 Vol.

No

icon for Other existing organization

Other existing organization

$9,746 Vol.

No

icon for No announcement in May

No announcement in May

$11,624 Vol.

Yes

On May 14, Ilya Sutskever announced he was leaving OpenAI, and he would share his next endeavor in due time (see https://twitter.com/ilyasut/status/1790517455628198322). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilya Sutskever announces he is joining Google by May 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Note that if Ilya joins a subsidiary of the above company, this market will resolve to "Yes." This market may immediately resolve once Ilya Sutskever announces his new endeavor. The primary resolution source will be statements from Ilya.On May 14, Ilya Sutskever announced he was leaving OpenAI, and he would share his next endeavor in due time (see https://twitter.com/ilyasut/status/1790517455628198322). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilya Sutskever announces he is joining Anthropic by May 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Note that if Ilya joins a subsidiary of the above company, this market will resolve to "Yes." This market may immediately resolve once Ilya Sutskever announces his new endeavor. The primary resolution source will be statements from Ilya.On May 14, Ilya Sutskever announced he was leaving OpenAI, and he would share his next endeavor in due time (see https://twitter.com/ilyasut/status/1790517455628198322). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilya Sutskever announces he is joining Apple by May 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Note that if Ilya joins a subsidiary of the above company, this market will resolve to "Yes." This market may immediately resolve once Ilya Sutskever announces his new endeavor. The primary resolution source will be statements from Ilya.On May 14, Ilya Sutskever announced he was leaving OpenAI, and he would share his next endeavor in due time (see https://twitter.com/ilyasut/status/1790517455628198322). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilya Sutskever announces he is joining xAI/X by May 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Note that if Ilya joins a subsidiary of the above company, this market will resolve to "Yes." This market may immediately resolve once Ilya Sutskever announces his new endeavor. The primary resolution source will be statements from Ilya.On May 14, Ilya Sutskever announced he was leaving OpenAI, and he would share his next endeavor in due time (see https://twitter.com/ilyasut/status/1790517455628198322). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilya Sutskever announces he is joining or founding a newly created company/organization by May 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This market may immediately resolve once Ilya Sutskever announces his new endeavor. On May 14, Ilya Sutskever announced he was leaving OpenAI, and he would share his next endeavor in due time (see https://twitter.com/ilyasut/status/1790517455628198322). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilya Sutskever announces he is joining another existing company/organization other than Anthropic, Google, X, and Apple by May 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source will be statements from Ilya.On May 14, Ilya Sutskever announced he was leaving OpenAI, and he would share his next endeavor in due time (see https://twitter.com/ilyasut/status/1790517455628198322). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilya Sutskever doesn't announce his future plans by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, or his endeavors do not include joining any company/organization (e.g. If he announces he will be building a cabin in the woods). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This market may immediately resolve once Ilya Sutskever announces his new endeavor.

On May 14, Ilya Sutskever announced he was leaving OpenAI, and he would share his next endeavor in due time (see https://twitter.com/ilyasut/status/1790517455628198322).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilya Sutskever announces he is joining Google by May 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Note that if Ilya joins a subsidiary of the above company, this market will resolve to "Yes." This market may immediately resolve once Ilya Sutskever announces his new endeavor.

The primary resolution source will be statements from Ilya.
Volume
$83,262
End Date
May 31, 2024
Market Opened
May 14, 2024, 7:29 PM ET
On May 14, Ilya Sutskever announced he was leaving OpenAI, and he would share his next endeavor in due time (see https://twitter.com/ilyasut/status/1790517455628198322). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilya Sutskever announces he is joining Google by May 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Note that if Ilya joins a subsidiary of the above company, this market will resolve to "Yes." This market may immediately resolve once Ilya Sutskever announces his new endeavor. The primary resolution source will be statements from Ilya.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

On May 14, Ilya Sutskever announced he was leaving OpenAI, and he would share his next endeavor in due time (see https://twitter.com/ilyasut/status/1790517455628198322). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilya Sutskever announces he is joining Google by May 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Note that if Ilya joins a subsidiary of the above company, this market will resolve to "Yes." This market may immediately resolve once Ilya Sutskever announces his new endeavor. The primary resolution source will be statements from Ilya.On May 14, Ilya Sutskever announced he was leaving OpenAI, and he would share his next endeavor in due time (see https://twitter.com/ilyasut/status/1790517455628198322). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilya Sutskever announces he is joining Anthropic by May 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Note that if Ilya joins a subsidiary of the above company, this market will resolve to "Yes." This market may immediately resolve once Ilya Sutskever announces his new endeavor. The primary resolution source will be statements from Ilya.On May 14, Ilya Sutskever announced he was leaving OpenAI, and he would share his next endeavor in due time (see https://twitter.com/ilyasut/status/1790517455628198322). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilya Sutskever announces he is joining Apple by May 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Note that if Ilya joins a subsidiary of the above company, this market will resolve to "Yes." This market may immediately resolve once Ilya Sutskever announces his new endeavor. The primary resolution source will be statements from Ilya.On May 14, Ilya Sutskever announced he was leaving OpenAI, and he would share his next endeavor in due time (see https://twitter.com/ilyasut/status/1790517455628198322). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilya Sutskever announces he is joining xAI/X by May 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Note that if Ilya joins a subsidiary of the above company, this market will resolve to "Yes." This market may immediately resolve once Ilya Sutskever announces his new endeavor. The primary resolution source will be statements from Ilya.On May 14, Ilya Sutskever announced he was leaving OpenAI, and he would share his next endeavor in due time (see https://twitter.com/ilyasut/status/1790517455628198322). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilya Sutskever announces he is joining or founding a newly created company/organization by May 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This market may immediately resolve once Ilya Sutskever announces his new endeavor. On May 14, Ilya Sutskever announced he was leaving OpenAI, and he would share his next endeavor in due time (see https://twitter.com/ilyasut/status/1790517455628198322). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilya Sutskever announces he is joining another existing company/organization other than Anthropic, Google, X, and Apple by May 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source will be statements from Ilya.On May 14, Ilya Sutskever announced he was leaving OpenAI, and he would share his next endeavor in due time (see https://twitter.com/ilyasut/status/1790517455628198322). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilya Sutskever doesn't announce his future plans by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, or his endeavors do not include joining any company/organization (e.g. If he announces he will be building a cabin in the woods). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This market may immediately resolve once Ilya Sutskever announces his new endeavor.

On May 14, Ilya Sutskever announced he was leaving OpenAI, and he would share his next endeavor in due time (see https://twitter.com/ilyasut/status/1790517455628198322).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilya Sutskever announces he is joining Google by May 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Note that if Ilya joins a subsidiary of the above company, this market will resolve to "Yes." This market may immediately resolve once Ilya Sutskever announces his new endeavor.

The primary resolution source will be statements from Ilya.
Volume
$83,262
End Date
May 31, 2024
Market Opened
May 14, 2024, 7:29 PM ET
On May 14, Ilya Sutskever announced he was leaving OpenAI, and he would share his next endeavor in due time (see https://twitter.com/ilyasut/status/1790517455628198322). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilya Sutskever announces he is joining Google by May 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Note that if Ilya joins a subsidiary of the above company, this market will resolve to "Yes." This market may immediately resolve once Ilya Sutskever announces his new endeavor. The primary resolution source will be statements from Ilya.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Ilya's next company?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "No announcement in May" at 100%, followed by "Google/Deepmind" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Ilya's next company?" has generated $83.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 14, 2024. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Ilya's next company?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Ilya's next company?" is "No announcement in May" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Google/Deepmind" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Ilya's next company?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.