The referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations occurred on 29 August 2026, with official results confirming turnout at 82.5% of registered voters—the highest since 2009 parliamentary elections. This outcome directly aligns trader consensus on the 80–85% range, reflecting elevated participation driven by intense public debate over fisheries sovereignty, economic stability, and regional security amid Arctic tensions. Advance voting reached record levels, while strong engagement across urban and rural constituencies contributed to the elevated rate. The market's pricing captures this verified participation figure rather than pre-vote expectations, with minimal probability assigned to other bins given the confirmed results.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated80–85% 100%
<45% <1%
45–50% <1%
50–55% <1%
$2,409 Vol.
$2,409 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
<45%
No
45–50%
No
50–55%
No
55–60%
No
60–65%
No
65–70%
No
70–75%
No
75–80%
No
80–85%
Yes
85%+
No
80–85% 100%
<45% <1%
45–50% <1%
50–55% <1%
$2,409 Vol.
$2,409 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
<45%
$142 Vol.
No
45–50%
$103 Vol.
No
50–55%
$203 Vol.
No
55–60%
$143 Vol.
No
60–65%
$143 Vol.
No
65–70%
$134 Vol.
No
70–75%
$20 Vol.
No
75–80%
$263 Vol.
No
80–85%
$336 Vol.
Yes
85%+
$924 Vol.
No
A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.The referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations occurred on 29 August 2026, with official results confirming turnout at 82.5% of registered voters—the highest since 2009 parliamentary elections. This outcome directly aligns trader consensus on the 80–85% range, reflecting elevated participation driven by intense public debate over fisheries sovereignty, economic stability, and regional security amid Arctic tensions. Advance voting reached record levels, while strong engagement across urban and rural constituencies contributed to the elevated rate. The market's pricing captures this verified participation figure rather than pre-vote expectations, with minimal probability assigned to other bins given the confirmed results.
A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 9:21 PM ET
Volume
$2,409End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.The referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations occurred on 29 August 2026, with official results confirming turnout at 82.5% of registered voters—the highest since 2009 parliamentary elections. This outcome directly aligns trader consensus on the 80–85% range, reflecting elevated participation driven by intense public debate over fisheries sovereignty, economic stability, and regional security amid Arctic tensions. Advance voting reached record levels, while strong engagement across urban and rural constituencies contributed to the elevated rate. The market's pricing captures this verified participation figure rather than pre-vote expectations, with minimal probability assigned to other bins given the confirmed results.
A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$2,409End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations occurred on 29 August 2026, with official results confirming turnout at 82.5% of registered voters—the highest since 2009 parliamentary elections. This outcome directly aligns trader consensus on the 80–85% range, reflecting elevated participation driven by intense public debate over fisheries sovereignty, economic stability, and regional security amid Arctic tensions. Advance voting reached record levels, while strong engagement across urban and rural constituencies contributed to the elevated rate. The market's pricing captures this verified participation figure rather than pre-vote expectations, with minimal probability assigned to other bins given the confirmed results.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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