Judge Farber postpones verdict in Weinstein retrial

No Prison Time drops to 84%9%

Following the closing arguments, Judge Farber announced a delayed verdict, keeping the outcome uncertain and causing a brief drop in the “No Prison Time” price before the market rebounded later in May.

Prosecutors deliver closing arguments urging jury to convict Harvey Weinstein

No Prison Time surges to 89%19%

Prosecutors emphasized the power dynamics and strength of accusers, urging the jury to hold Weinstein accountable, which temporarily affected market prices but did not decisively shift outcome probabilities.

Judge Declares Mistrial in Harvey Weinstein's Third New York Rape Trial After Jury Deadlocks

No Prison Time surges to 84%54%

Judge Curtis Farber declared a mistrial after the jury deadlocked 9-3 in favor of acquittal on the single charge of third-degree rape, driving the 'No Prison Time' outcome to 84%.

Harvey Weinstein's third New York rape trial ends in mistrial after jury deadlock

No Prison Time surges to 79%41%

The jury deadlocked again on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial declaration. This outcome significantly increased market confidence in the 'No Prison Time' option as the case remained unresolved.

Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexual assault but acquitted on another in New York retrial

The jury found Weinstein guilty of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted him of assaulting Kaja Sokola, with no verdict on the Jessica Mann rape charge, increasing uncertainty and market volatility.

Harvey Weinstein retrial prosecution urges jury to 'let him know the rules apply to him'

Prosecutors delivered closing arguments emphasizing accountability, reinforcing the seriousness of charges and affecting market sentiment.

Harvey Weinstein Retrial Jury Declared Mistrial After Deadlock

No Prison Time surges to 79%72%

The jury was hopelessly deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial and significantly increasing market confidence in the "No Prison Time" outcome due to uncertainty about further sentencing.

Harvey Weinstein's defense seeks acquittal as rape retrial comes to close

Closing arguments began with Weinstein's defense urging acquittal, emphasizing the complexity of the relationship with the accuser. This led to increased market uncertainty and a temporary dip in the no-prison-time probability.

Harvey Weinstein Defense Seeks Acquittal as Rape Retrial Comes to Close

Defense closing arguments urged jurors to acquit Weinstein, framing the allegations as false and impacting market expectations by increasing the perceived chance of no prison time.

Weinstein defense urges acquittal as retrial nears close

No Prison Time surges to 93%68%

Weinstein’s defense made a high‑profile closing‑argument appeal for acquittal, intensifying media coverage and pushing the market’s “No Prison Time” price sharply higher as a conviction seemed less likely.

Harvey Weinstein's defense seeks acquittal as rape retrial nears conclusion

No Prison Time surges to 84%54%

Defense attorneys urged the jury to acquit Weinstein, arguing the accuser fabricated the allegations, signaling a strong defense push that influenced market expectations toward lower prison time probabilities.

Prosecutors Urge Jury to Hold Weinstein Accountable in Retrial Closing Arguments

Prosecutors delivered closing arguments emphasizing the power dynamics and urging the jury to convict Weinstein, while defense argued accusers were motivated by money and fame, intensifying market speculation on sentencing.

Harvey Weinstein's Third New York Rape Retrial Opens with Opening Statements

10-20 years jumps to 25%12%

The third trial focused solely on the single charge of third-degree rape involving Jessica Mann, with prosecutors and defense presenting contrasting narratives of power and consent.

Harvey Weinstein’s rape retrial opens in New York, third time this case has gone to trial

Opening statements in the third trial emphasized power and consent issues, with prosecutors and defense presenting contrasting narratives, impacting market expectations.

Harvey Weinstein’s Third New York Rape Retrial Opens with Opening Statements

Opening statements in the third retrial emphasized the power dynamics and consent issues, setting the tone for the trial and influencing market sentiment on the likelihood of conviction and sentencing.

Harvey Weinstein's Third New York Rape Trial Begins with Jury Selection

Jury selection started for Weinstein's third New York rape retrial focusing on the 2013 rape allegation by Jessica Mann. This retrial was a continuation of the unresolved legal process, impacting market sentiment with ongoing uncertainty about conviction and sentencing.

Harvey Weinstein to face retrial on New York rape charge

ABC reported the scheduling of a new retrial for the remaining third‑degree rape charge, reviving the possibility of a lengthy prison sentence and shifting market interest away from “No Prison Time.”

Harvey Weinstein to face retrial on New York rape charge

Announcement of the upcoming retrial focusing on a single rape charge with jury selection starting soon, renewing market attention and affecting price movements.

Harvey Weinstein's third New York rape trial begins focusing on Jessica Mann charge

The third retrial started with jury selection and opening statements focusing solely on the single rape charge involving Jessica Mann, narrowing the case and affecting market expectations.

Harvey Weinstein faces third New York rape retrial focusing on Jessica Mann charge

No Prison Time drops to 28%10%

A new retrial was scheduled focusing solely on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, with jury selection beginning. This renewed trial phase caused market fluctuations as the case's outcome remained uncertain.

Harvey Weinstein Faces Third New York Rape Trial on Jessica Mann Charge

Jury selection began for Weinstein's third New York trial focusing solely on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, narrowing the case and impacting market expectations about the trial's outcome.

Harvey Weinstein Replaces Legal Team with High-Profile Defense Attorneys Ahead of Third Trial

<5 years surges to 56%53%

Weinstein shook up his legal representation by hiring Jacob Kaplan and Marc Agnifilo, known for representing high-profile clients, to defend him in his upcoming third New York rape trial.

Prosecutors say they will review next steps after Weinstein‑mistrial

No Prison Time plunges to 9%32%

A New York appellate decision upheld the mistrial and announced that prosecutors would consider a fourth trial, reviving speculation of a future sentence and causing the market’s “No Prison Time” price to dip.

Mistrial declared in Harvey Weinstein's New York rape retrial due to deadlocked jury

No Prison Time rises to 9%2%

The jury failed to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading the judge to declare a mistrial. This increased uncertainty about a prison sentence from this retrial, pushing market prices toward "No Prison Time."

Harvey Weinstein's rape retrial ends in mistrial due to jury deadlock

No Prison Time surges to 39%24%

The jury was unable to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, resulting in a mistrial. This outcome increased uncertainty about Weinstein's final sentence, pushing market probabilities toward 'No Prison Time'.

Harvey Weinstein's Rape Retrial Ends in Mistrial on Jessica Mann Charge

No Prison Time plunges to 25%25%

The jury deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading Judge Curtis Farber to declare a mistrial. This outcome increased market expectations for "No Prison Time" from the New York retrial due to unresolved charges and ongoing legal uncertainty.

Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted on another charge

5-10 years jumps to 15%8%

The jury found Weinstein guilty of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted him of assaulting Kaja Sokola. The jury could not reach a verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to mixed market reactions with some increase in conviction probabilities.

Harvey Weinstein Convicted of Sexual Assault in New York Retrial; Jury Deadlocks on Rape Charge

5-10 years plunges to 15%35%

Weinstein was convicted of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted of assaulting Kaja Sokola. The jury could not reach a verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial on that count. This mixed verdict affected market probabilities, increasing chances of some prison time but uncertainty remained.

Harvey Weinstein Convicted of Sexually Abusing Miriam Haley but Jury Deadlocks on Rape Charge

No Prison Time surges to 41%27%

Weinstein was found guilty of a first-degree criminal sexual act against Miriam Haley, but the jury deadlocked on the third-degree rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a partial verdict and a mistrial on that count.

Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexually abusing Miriam Haley but acquitted of assaulting Kaja Sokola

5-10 years jumps to 13%11%

The jury found Weinstein guilty of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted him on the charge involving Kaja Sokola, with no verdict reached on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann. This partial verdict caused market shifts reflecting mixed expectations for prison time.

Harvey Weinstein’s New York rape retrial ends in a mistrial

No Prison Time drops to 7%7%

Weinstein appeared in court for jury deliberations, but the jury dead‑locked on the third‑degree rape charge, leading to a mistrial. The lack of a conviction drove the market sharply toward “No Prison Time.”

Harvey Weinstein Replaces Legal Team Ahead of Retrial

Weinstein changed his legal team, hiring new attorneys including those associated with Sean 'Diddy' Combs, which could affect trial strategy and market perceptions of his defense strength.

Harvey Weinstein replaces legal team ahead of New York retrial

Weinstein hired new attorneys, including lawyers associated with Sean 'Diddy' Combs, signaling a strategic shift in his defense as the retrial approached, which influenced market perceptions of trial outcomes.

Harvey Weinstein Convicted of Sexual Assault but Jury Deadlocks on Rape Charge

<5 years dips to 6%1%

Weinstein was convicted of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted on another charge and the jury could not reach a verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a partial verdict and ongoing uncertainty about sentencing.

Harvey Weinstein's New York retrial begins with opening statements and new accuser

No Prison Time plunges to 14%36%

The retrial started with prosecutors presenting their case and a new accuser, Kaja Sokola, coming forward. This renewed legal challenge increased uncertainty about Weinstein's potential prison sentence, initially lowering the market's confidence in 'No Prison Time'.

Harvey Weinstein's New York Retrial Begins with Opening Statements

The retrial began with prosecutors presenting their case and a new accuser identified, signaling the start of a significant legal process that would influence market expectations about Weinstein's prison sentence.

Harvey Weinstein’s New York retrial begins with opening statements

No Prison Time plunges to 14%36%

Weinstein’s New York retrial opened with opening statements, marking the first hearing since his 2020 conviction was overturned. The start of the trial created uncertainty about a possible sentence, pushing the market toward the “No Prison Time” outcome.