Recent polling from Pew, Rasmussen, and others shows Republican congressional candidates drawing 8–21% support among Black registered voters ahead of the 2026 midterms, reflecting erosion of the roughly 15% share Donald Trump captured in 2024. High disapproval ratings near 75%, economic pressures including unemployment and inflation in Black communities, and reactions to administration policies have contributed to softening in several surveys, while party identification data places Republican leaners near 14%. The tight clustering of market probabilities around 8–13% captures uncertainty over whether targeted outreach, state-level dynamics, or turnout shifts in Southern districts can sustain or expand recent gains, versus a return toward historical single-digit levels. Upcoming generic ballot releases and primary results could widen separation if they confirm sustained movement or further reversal.