Recent polling from Pew and others shows Black registered voters favoring Democratic House candidates by wide margins of roughly 60 points or more in mid-2026 surveys, consistent with the market's concentration around an 8-13% GOP share. Sustained but limited inroads from the 2024 cycle, where Republican support reached the mid-teens in some estimates, have been offset by declining approval ratings for the administration among Black voters, driven by economic pressures including unemployment and inflation. Redistricting disputes and voting rights developments have also boosted Democratic turnout in key areas. The tight clustering among the leading bins reflects uncertainty over whether modest shifts in party identification and generic ballot preferences will hold through November or revert toward longer-term patterns near or below 10%. Upcoming economic data releases and campaign events could widen the range if they alter voter sentiment in either direction.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated10–11% 26%
12–13% 22%
8–9% 16%
<8% 11%
NEW
NEW
Nov 6, 2026
<8%
11%
8–9%
24%
10–11%
26%
12–13%
22%
14–15%
9%
16–17%
6%
18%+
3%
10–11% 26%
12–13% 22%
8–9% 16%
<8% 11%
NEW
NEW
Nov 6, 2026
<8%
$20 Vol.
11%
8–9%
$538 Vol.
24%
10–11%
$441 Vol.
26%
12–13%
$351 Vol.
22%
14–15%
$192 Vol.
9%
16–17%
$20 Vol.
6%
18%+
$91 Vol.
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Recent polling from Pew and others shows Black registered voters favoring Democratic House candidates by wide margins of roughly 60 points or more in mid-2026 surveys, consistent with the market's concentration around an 8-13% GOP share. Sustained but limited inroads from the 2024 cycle, where Republican support reached the mid-teens in some estimates, have been offset by declining approval ratings for the administration among Black voters, driven by economic pressures including unemployment and inflation. Redistricting disputes and voting rights developments have also boosted Democratic turnout in key areas. The tight clustering among the leading bins reflects uncertainty over whether modest shifts in party identification and generic ballot preferences will hold through November or revert toward longer-term patterns near or below 10%. Upcoming economic data releases and campaign events could widen the range if they alter voter sentiment in either direction.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Volume
$1,652End Date
Nov 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Recent polling from Pew and others shows Black registered voters favoring Democratic House candidates by wide margins of roughly 60 points or more in mid-2026 surveys, consistent with the market's concentration around an 8-13% GOP share. Sustained but limited inroads from the 2024 cycle, where Republican support reached the mid-teens in some estimates, have been offset by declining approval ratings for the administration among Black voters, driven by economic pressures including unemployment and inflation. Redistricting disputes and voting rights developments have also boosted Democratic turnout in key areas. The tight clustering among the leading bins reflects uncertainty over whether modest shifts in party identification and generic ballot preferences will hold through November or revert toward longer-term patterns near or below 10%. Upcoming economic data releases and campaign events could widen the range if they alter voter sentiment in either direction.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$1,652End Date
Nov 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from Pew and others shows Black registered voters favoring Democratic House candidates by wide margins of roughly 60 points or more in mid-2026 surveys, consistent with the market's concentration around an 8-13% GOP share. Sustained but limited inroads from the 2024 cycle, where Republican support reached the mid-teens in some estimates, have been offset by declining approval ratings for the administration among Black voters, driven by economic pressures including unemployment and inflation. Redistricting disputes and voting rights developments have also boosted Democratic turnout in key areas. The tight clustering among the leading bins reflects uncertainty over whether modest shifts in party identification and generic ballot preferences will hold through November or revert toward longer-term patterns near or below 10%. Upcoming economic data releases and campaign events could widen the range if they alter voter sentiment in either direction.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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