Trader consensus prices an 85% implied probability on no charges against former Rep. Eric Swalwell by May 31, reflecting the absence of formal indictments despite multiple probes sparked by sexual assault allegations from several women in early April. The DOJ, Manhattan DA, Los Angeles County DA, and House Ethics Committee launched investigations into claims of assault, drugging, and misconduct, prompting Swalwell's congressional resignation, but no arrests or filings have materialized amid lengthy procedural reviews. Resurfaced FBI files on his past association with suspected Chinese operative Christine Fang added scrutiny without advancing to prosecution. With three weeks remaining, bettors anticipate typical delays in high-profile cases outweigh rapid escalation risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFor the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 14, 2026, 6:35 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 85% implied probability on no charges against former Rep. Eric Swalwell by May 31, reflecting the absence of formal indictments despite multiple probes sparked by sexual assault allegations from several women in early April. The DOJ, Manhattan DA, Los Angeles County DA, and House Ethics Committee launched investigations into claims of assault, drugging, and misconduct, prompting Swalwell's congressional resignation, but no arrests or filings have materialized amid lengthy procedural reviews. Resurfaced FBI files on his past association with suspected Chinese operative Christine Fang added scrutiny without advancing to prosecution. With three weeks remaining, bettors anticipate typical delays in high-profile cases outweigh rapid escalation risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions