Traders assign a 96.5% probability that Eric Swalwell will not face charges by May 31 because federal investigations into sexual assault allegations typically require extensive evidence gathering, witness interviews, and prosecutorial review before any decision to indict. The Department of Justice opened its probe in mid-April after multiple women came forward with claims, prompting Swalwell’s resignation from Congress and withdrawal from the California gubernatorial race; parallel inquiries by Los Angeles and Manhattan district attorneys have followed a similar timeline without reported filings. No recent developments or public statements indicate accelerated action within the narrow remaining window. Outcomes could still shift if new corroborating evidence surfaces or authorities move unusually swiftly on any single allegation before the deadline.