Geopolitical tensions stemming from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and related Middle East supply disruptions have driven WTI crude futures near $90 per barrel in early June 2026, positioning the >$84 June settlement outcome at a 68.5% market-implied probability. Large inventory draws in the second quarter, fueled by shut-in production from key Gulf producers, have tightened near-term balances and limited downside pressure despite partial shipping resumption and softer Chinese demand signals. Recent price pullbacks reflect progress in U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks and weaker consumption data, yet persistent risk premiums and expectations of ongoing disruptions through mid-year continue to anchor trader consensus above the $84 threshold ahead of contract expiration.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourÀ quoi le pétrole brut (CL) se stabilisera-t-il en juin ?
>84 $ 69%
77 $–84 $ 16%
70 $ - 77 $ 7.5%
63 $-70 $ 2.1%
$220,151 Vol.
$220,151 Vol.
<42 $
<1%
42 $-49 $
1%
49 $–56 $
1%
56 $-63 $
1%
63 $-70 $
2%
70 $ - 77 $
8%
77 $–84 $
16%
>84 $
69%
>84 $ 69%
77 $–84 $ 16%
70 $ - 77 $ 7.5%
63 $-70 $ 2.1%
$220,151 Vol.
$220,151 Vol.
<42 $
<1%
42 $-49 $
1%
49 $–56 $
1%
56 $-63 $
1%
63 $-70 $
2%
70 $ - 77 $
8%
77 $–84 $
16%
>84 $
69%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Marché ouvert : Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Geopolitical tensions stemming from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and related Middle East supply disruptions have driven WTI crude futures near $90 per barrel in early June 2026, positioning the >$84 June settlement outcome at a 68.5% market-implied probability. Large inventory draws in the second quarter, fueled by shut-in production from key Gulf producers, have tightened near-term balances and limited downside pressure despite partial shipping resumption and softer Chinese demand signals. Recent price pullbacks reflect progress in U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks and weaker consumption data, yet persistent risk premiums and expectations of ongoing disruptions through mid-year continue to anchor trader consensus above the $84 threshold ahead of contract expiration.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes