The U.S. conducted targeted military strikes on Caracas on January 3, 2026, capturing President Nicolás Maduro in an operation likened to the 1989 Panama intervention, but without ground troop deployments or territorial occupation, prompting Polymarket resolution disputes over the "invasion" definition. Trader consensus reflects low escalation odds, driven by subsequent de-escalation: diplomatic relations re-established with Venezuela's interim government on March 5, partial sanctions relief, and the April 2 lifting of penalties on acting President Delcy Rodríguez to facilitate economic stabilization. No new military mobilizations reported; focus has shifted to U.S. oversight of oil infrastructure and regional alliances amid congressional curbs on further action.