Trader consensus favors Tom Aspinall at 49.5% implied probability to remain UFC Heavyweight champion through year's end, buoyed by his dominant title reign despite a lingering eye injury from the Round 1 eye-poke stoppage in his UFC 321 defense against Ciryl Gane, with recent training updates signaling a potential late-2026 return. Sergei Pavlovich's 26.9% share reflects his 2025 resurgence via decision wins over Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Waldo Cortes Acosta, restoring knockout threat status ahead of his May 30 matchup with Tallison Teixeira. Gane's 21.5% stems from technical striking edge and positioning for an interim title clash versus Alex Pereira at UFC White House in June, while grapplers Jailton Almeida and Waldo Cortes Acosta at 15% each gain from recent activity and stylistic advantages in a thin division lacking a fully healthy top contender.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoTom Aspinall 42%
Sergei Pavlovich 26.9%
Ciryl Gane 16%
Derrick Lewis 10.4%
$28,525 Vol.
$28,525 Vol.
Tom Aspinall
50%
Sergei Pavlovich
27%
Ciryl Gane
26%
Derrick Lewis
10%
Ante Delija
10%
Curtis Blaydes
10%
Marcin Tybura
7%
Serghei Spivac
9%
Alexander Volkov
9%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
1%
Jailton Almeida
15%
Tom Aspinall 42%
Sergei Pavlovich 26.9%
Ciryl Gane 16%
Derrick Lewis 10.4%
$28,525 Vol.
$28,525 Vol.
Tom Aspinall
50%
Sergei Pavlovich
27%
Ciryl Gane
26%
Derrick Lewis
10%
Ante Delija
10%
Curtis Blaydes
10%
Marcin Tybura
7%
Serghei Spivac
9%
Alexander Volkov
9%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
1%
Jailton Almeida
15%
Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Mercado abierto: Jan 4, 2026, 2:33 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors Tom Aspinall at 49.5% implied probability to remain UFC Heavyweight champion through year's end, buoyed by his dominant title reign despite a lingering eye injury from the Round 1 eye-poke stoppage in his UFC 321 defense against Ciryl Gane, with recent training updates signaling a potential late-2026 return. Sergei Pavlovich's 26.9% share reflects his 2025 resurgence via decision wins over Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Waldo Cortes Acosta, restoring knockout threat status ahead of his May 30 matchup with Tallison Teixeira. Gane's 21.5% stems from technical striking edge and positioning for an interim title clash versus Alex Pereira at UFC White House in June, while grapplers Jailton Almeida and Waldo Cortes Acosta at 15% each gain from recent activity and stylistic advantages in a thin division lacking a fully healthy top contender.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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