Trader consensus prices a tightly contested UFC flyweight title picture at year-end, with former champion Alexandre Pantoja leading at 40% implied probability despite his controversial first-round injury TKO loss to Joshua Van at UFC 323 in December 2025—a freak shoulder/arm stoppage that leaves rematch buzz alive. Current champion Van sits fourth at 25%, facing pressure in his first title defense against unbeaten contender Tatsuro Taira (34%) on April 11, following Taira's knockout of Brandon Moreno late last year. Manel Kape (33.5%) bolsters his case with knockout power and a stylistic edge, headlining a June rematch versus Kyoji Horiguchi to solidify contender status in this stacked division lacking a clear frontrunner.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoJoshua Van 50%
Alexandre Pantoja 32%
Kyoji Horiguchi 5.0%
Tim Elliott 2.7%
Joshua Van
26%
Alexandre Pantoja
40%
Kyoji Horiguchi
5%
Tim Elliott
3%
Brandon Moreno
<1%
Brandon Royval
<1%
Asu Almabayev
<1%
Amir Albazi
<1%
Steve Erceg
<1%
Manel Kape
34%
Tatsuro Taira
35%
Joshua Van 50%
Alexandre Pantoja 32%
Kyoji Horiguchi 5.0%
Tim Elliott 2.7%
Joshua Van
26%
Alexandre Pantoja
40%
Kyoji Horiguchi
5%
Tim Elliott
3%
Brandon Moreno
<1%
Brandon Royval
<1%
Asu Almabayev
<1%
Amir Albazi
<1%
Steve Erceg
<1%
Manel Kape
34%
Tatsuro Taira
35%
Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Mercado abierto: Jan 2, 2026, 5:45 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices a tightly contested UFC flyweight title picture at year-end, with former champion Alexandre Pantoja leading at 40% implied probability despite his controversial first-round injury TKO loss to Joshua Van at UFC 323 in December 2025—a freak shoulder/arm stoppage that leaves rematch buzz alive. Current champion Van sits fourth at 25%, facing pressure in his first title defense against unbeaten contender Tatsuro Taira (34%) on April 11, following Taira's knockout of Brandon Moreno late last year. Manel Kape (33.5%) bolsters his case with knockout power and a stylistic edge, headlining a June rematch versus Kyoji Horiguchi to solidify contender status in this stacked division lacking a clear frontrunner.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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