Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer at 58.5% to be the next Trump Cabinet member to resign or be fired, driven by a cascade of recent scandals at the Department of Labor. In the past month, her top aides were forced to resign following a White House ultimatum amid an inspector general probe into alleged misconduct and misuse of funds; a third aide was placed on leave; her security detail head quit over affair claims; and her husband was barred from the building after assault allegations against staffers. These developments signal deepening turmoil, contrasting with lower odds for Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard (10.8%) and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (9.7%), whose earlier confirmation battles have not escalated recently, while "None before 2027" languishes at 6% amid expectations of high turnover akin to Trump's first term.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoLori Chavez-DeRemer 59%
Tulsi Gabbard 10.8%
Pete Hegseth 9.7%
Nadie antes de 2027 6.0%
$1,508,242 Vol.
$1,508,242 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
59%
Tulsi Gabbard
11%
Pete Hegseth
10%
Nadie antes de 2027
6%
Mike Waltz
3%
Lee Zeldin
3%
Scott Bessent
2%
Brooke Rollins
1%
J.D. Vance
1%
Sean Duffy
1%
Pam Bondi
1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
1%
Howard Lutnick
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
John Ratcliffe
1%
Scott Turner
1%
Susie Wiles
1%
Russell T. Vought
1%
Marco Rubio
1%
Chris Wright
1%
Kelly Loeffler
<1%
Jamieson Greer
<1%
Doug Collins
<1%
Doug Burgum
<1%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer 59%
Tulsi Gabbard 10.8%
Pete Hegseth 9.7%
Nadie antes de 2027 6.0%
$1,508,242 Vol.
$1,508,242 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
$73,219 Vol.
59%
Tulsi Gabbard
$693,864 Vol.
11%
Pete Hegseth
$342,189 Vol.
10%
Nadie antes de 2027
$138,566 Vol.
6%
Mike Waltz
$4,298 Vol.
3%
Lee Zeldin
$40,976 Vol.
3%
Scott Bessent
$4,568 Vol.
2%
Brooke Rollins
$6,623 Vol.
1%
J.D. Vance
$7,171 Vol.
1%
Sean Duffy
$63,962 Vol.
1%
Pam Bondi
$3,967 Vol.
1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$3,560 Vol.
1%
Howard Lutnick
$26,010 Vol.
1%
Linda McMahon
$9,797 Vol.
1%
John Ratcliffe
$3,998 Vol.
1%
Scott Turner
$5,472 Vol.
1%
Susie Wiles
$4,687 Vol.
1%
Russell T. Vought
$3,910 Vol.
1%
Marco Rubio
$50,374 Vol.
1%
Chris Wright
$3,792 Vol.
1%
Kelly Loeffler
$3,705 Vol.
<1%
Jamieson Greer
$4,507 Vol.
<1%
Doug Collins
$3,258 Vol.
<1%
Doug Burgum
$5,787 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer at 58.5% to be the next Trump Cabinet member to resign or be fired, driven by a cascade of recent scandals at the Department of Labor. In the past month, her top aides were forced to resign following a White House ultimatum amid an inspector general probe into alleged misconduct and misuse of funds; a third aide was placed on leave; her security detail head quit over affair claims; and her husband was barred from the building after assault allegations against staffers. These developments signal deepening turmoil, contrasting with lower odds for Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard (10.8%) and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (9.7%), whose earlier confirmation battles have not escalated recently, while "None before 2027" languishes at 6% amid expectations of high turnover akin to Trump's first term.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ET
Volumen
$1,508,242Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer at 58.5% to be the next Trump Cabinet member to resign or be fired, driven by a cascade of recent scandals at the Department of Labor. In the past month, her top aides were forced to resign following a White House ultimatum amid an inspector general probe into alleged misconduct and misuse of funds; a third aide was placed on leave; her security detail head quit over affair claims; and her husband was barred from the building after assault allegations against staffers. These developments signal deepening turmoil, contrasting with lower odds for Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard (10.8%) and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (9.7%), whose earlier confirmation battles have not escalated recently, while "None before 2027" languishes at 6% amid expectations of high turnover akin to Trump's first term.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volumen
$1,508,242Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer at 58.5% to be the next Trump Cabinet member to resign or be fired, driven by a cascade of recent scandals at the Department of Labor. In the past month, her top aides were forced to resign following a White House ultimatum amid an inspector general probe into alleged misconduct and misuse of funds; a third aide was placed on leave; her security detail head quit over affair claims; and her husband was barred from the building after assault allegations against staffers. These developments signal deepening turmoil, contrasting with lower odds for Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard (10.8%) and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (9.7%), whose earlier confirmation battles have not escalated recently, while "None before 2027" languishes at 6% amid expectations of high turnover akin to Trump's first term.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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