Trader consensus heavily favors Avengers: Doomsday at 74% implied probability for 2026's biggest domestic opening weekend, driven by glowing early studio screenings in late February that impressed execs and a poll of over 700 industry experts crowning it the year's top box office performer, bolstered by Robert Downey Jr.'s return as Doctor Doom and Marvel's track record of massive Avengers launches like Endgame's $357 million debut. Spider-Man: Brand New Day holds second at 11.5% following its explosive official trailer drop on March 18, generating record-breaking early buzz for Tom Holland's July 31 release amid strong Spider-Verse franchise precedent. Toy Story 5 and Dune: Messiah trail due to summer competition and Doomsday's same-day December 18 clash, respectively, with traders eyeing upcoming presales tracking and marketing pushes as key swing factors ahead of summer tentpoles.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Qué película tiene el mayor fin de semana de estreno en 2026?
¿Qué película tiene el mayor fin de semana de estreno en 2026?
Avengers: Doomsday 74%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 12%
Toy Story 5 2.6%
Dune: Messiah 2.3%
$1,185,472 Vol.
$1,185,472 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Avengers: Doomsday
74%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
12%
Toy Story 5
3%
Dune: Messiah
2%
La Odisea
2%
Michael
1%
Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu
1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
<1%
Scream 7
<1%
Proyecto Hail Mary
<1%
Avengers: Doomsday 74%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 12%
Toy Story 5 2.6%
Dune: Messiah 2.3%
$1,185,472 Vol.
$1,185,472 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Avengers: Doomsday
$90,463 Vol.
74%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
$26,788 Vol.
12%
Toy Story 5
$173,931 Vol.
3%
Dune: Messiah
$81,306 Vol.
2%
La Odisea
$136,523 Vol.
2%
Michael
$482,805 Vol.
1%
Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu
$28,146 Vol.
1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
$0 Vol.
<1%
Scream 7
$42,654 Vol.
<1%
Proyecto Hail Mary
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus heavily favors Avengers: Doomsday at 74% implied probability for 2026's biggest domestic opening weekend, driven by glowing early studio screenings in late February that impressed execs and a poll of over 700 industry experts crowning it the year's top box office performer, bolstered by Robert Downey Jr.'s return as Doctor Doom and Marvel's track record of massive Avengers launches like Endgame's $357 million debut. Spider-Man: Brand New Day holds second at 11.5% following its explosive official trailer drop on March 18, generating record-breaking early buzz for Tom Holland's July 31 release amid strong Spider-Verse franchise precedent. Toy Story 5 and Dune: Messiah trail due to summer competition and Doomsday's same-day December 18 clash, respectively, with traders eyeing upcoming presales tracking and marketing pushes as key swing factors ahead of summer tentpoles.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Mercado abierto: Nov 12, 2025, 5:18 PM ET
Volumen
$1,185,472Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus heavily favors Avengers: Doomsday at 74% implied probability for 2026's biggest domestic opening weekend, driven by glowing early studio screenings in late February that impressed execs and a poll of over 700 industry experts crowning it the year's top box office performer, bolstered by Robert Downey Jr.'s return as Doctor Doom and Marvel's track record of massive Avengers launches like Endgame's $357 million debut. Spider-Man: Brand New Day holds second at 11.5% following its explosive official trailer drop on March 18, generating record-breaking early buzz for Tom Holland's July 31 release amid strong Spider-Verse franchise precedent. Toy Story 5 and Dune: Messiah trail due to summer competition and Doomsday's same-day December 18 clash, respectively, with traders eyeing upcoming presales tracking and marketing pushes as key swing factors ahead of summer tentpoles.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volumen
$1,185,472Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors Avengers: Doomsday at 74% implied probability for 2026's biggest domestic opening weekend, driven by glowing early studio screenings in late February that impressed execs and a poll of over 700 industry experts crowning it the year's top box office performer, bolstered by Robert Downey Jr.'s return as Doctor Doom and Marvel's track record of massive Avengers launches like Endgame's $357 million debut. Spider-Man: Brand New Day holds second at 11.5% following its explosive official trailer drop on March 18, generating record-breaking early buzz for Tom Holland's July 31 release amid strong Spider-Verse franchise precedent. Toy Story 5 and Dune: Messiah trail due to summer competition and Doomsday's same-day December 18 clash, respectively, with traders eyeing upcoming presales tracking and marketing pushes as key swing factors ahead of summer tentpoles.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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