Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China at 97.7% implied probability as of March 31, driven by the Supreme Court's February 2026 ruling invalidating IEEPA tariffs, which terminated higher rates effective February 24 and lowered the effective ad valorem rate to approximately 10.3% per latest USITC data through early 2026. This status quo persists amid the 10% Section 122 global tariff valid until July and suspended reciprocal hikes until November, with no new executive orders or USTR proclamations announced. Recent U.S.-China talks in Paris on March 15–16 signal truce extension efforts ahead of a potential Trump-Xi summit. Late-breaking developments, such as an emergency executive action or trade escalation, could shift odds, though procedural hurdles make this unlikely before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado10
5–15% 97.6%
15–25% 2.1%
25–35% <1%
<5% <1%
$1,146,301 Vol.
$1,146,301 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5%
<1%
5–15%
98%
15–25%
2%
25–35%
<1%
35% o más
<1%
5–15% 97.6%
15–25% 2.1%
25–35% <1%
<5% <1%
$1,146,301 Vol.
$1,146,301 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5%
$80,882 Vol.
<1%
5–15%
$262,665 Vol.
98%
15–25%
$536,340 Vol.
2%
25–35%
$145,597 Vol.
<1%
35% o más
$120,821 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China at 97.7% implied probability as of March 31, driven by the Supreme Court's February 2026 ruling invalidating IEEPA tariffs, which terminated higher rates effective February 24 and lowered the effective ad valorem rate to approximately 10.3% per latest USITC data through early 2026. This status quo persists amid the 10% Section 122 global tariff valid until July and suspended reciprocal hikes until November, with no new executive orders or USTR proclamations announced. Recent U.S.-China talks in Paris on March 15–16 signal truce extension efforts ahead of a potential Trump-Xi summit. Late-breaking developments, such as an emergency executive action or trade escalation, could shift odds, though procedural hurdles make this unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volumen
$1,146,301Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China at 97.7% implied probability as of March 31, driven by the Supreme Court's February 2026 ruling invalidating IEEPA tariffs, which terminated higher rates effective February 24 and lowered the effective ad valorem rate to approximately 10.3% per latest USITC data through early 2026. This status quo persists amid the 10% Section 122 global tariff valid until July and suspended reciprocal hikes until November, with no new executive orders or USTR proclamations announced. Recent U.S.-China talks in Paris on March 15–16 signal truce extension efforts ahead of a potential Trump-Xi summit. Late-breaking developments, such as an emergency executive action or trade escalation, could shift odds, though procedural hurdles make this unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Volumen
$1,146,301Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China at 97.7% implied probability as of March 31, driven by the Supreme Court's February 2026 ruling invalidating IEEPA tariffs, which terminated higher rates effective February 24 and lowered the effective ad valorem rate to approximately 10.3% per latest USITC data through early 2026. This status quo persists amid the 10% Section 122 global tariff valid until July and suspended reciprocal hikes until November, with no new executive orders or USTR proclamations announced. Recent U.S.-China talks in Paris on March 15–16 signal truce extension efforts ahead of a potential Trump-Xi summit. Late-breaking developments, such as an emergency executive action or trade escalation, could shift odds, though procedural hurdles make this unlikely before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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