Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China by March 31, driven by the Supreme Court's February 20 ruling invalidating higher IEEPA-based reciprocal and fentanyl tariffs, which had previously escalated rates above 100% on many goods. The Trump administration responded with a 10% global Section 122 tariff under the Trade Act of 1974, effective February 24 and lasting until July 24 absent congressional extension, stacking atop residual Section 301 duties to yield an effective average around 10.3% per USTR trackers and analyses like Wharton's. No new escalations have materialized in the past week, with ongoing Section 301 probes into forced labor and excess capacity slated for hearings in April. Late-breaking executive orders raising Section 122 to 15% or expedited tariff hikes could shift odds, though procedural timelines make this unlikely before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado10
5–15% 96.6%
15–25% 2.6%
<5% <1%
25–35% <1%
$1,136,493 Vol.
$1,136,493 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5%
<1%
5–15%
97%
15–25%
3%
25–35%
<1%
35% o más
<1%
5–15% 96.6%
15–25% 2.6%
<5% <1%
25–35% <1%
$1,136,493 Vol.
$1,136,493 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5%
$79,557 Vol.
<1%
5–15%
$258,852 Vol.
97%
15–25%
$533,850 Vol.
3%
25–35%
$144,481 Vol.
<1%
35% o más
$119,753 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China by March 31, driven by the Supreme Court's February 20 ruling invalidating higher IEEPA-based reciprocal and fentanyl tariffs, which had previously escalated rates above 100% on many goods. The Trump administration responded with a 10% global Section 122 tariff under the Trade Act of 1974, effective February 24 and lasting until July 24 absent congressional extension, stacking atop residual Section 301 duties to yield an effective average around 10.3% per USTR trackers and analyses like Wharton's. No new escalations have materialized in the past week, with ongoing Section 301 probes into forced labor and excess capacity slated for hearings in April. Late-breaking executive orders raising Section 122 to 15% or expedited tariff hikes could shift odds, though procedural timelines make this unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volumen
$1,136,493Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China by March 31, driven by the Supreme Court's February 20 ruling invalidating higher IEEPA-based reciprocal and fentanyl tariffs, which had previously escalated rates above 100% on many goods. The Trump administration responded with a 10% global Section 122 tariff under the Trade Act of 1974, effective February 24 and lasting until July 24 absent congressional extension, stacking atop residual Section 301 duties to yield an effective average around 10.3% per USTR trackers and analyses like Wharton's. No new escalations have materialized in the past week, with ongoing Section 301 probes into forced labor and excess capacity slated for hearings in April. Late-breaking executive orders raising Section 122 to 15% or expedited tariff hikes could shift odds, though procedural timelines make this unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Volumen
$1,136,493Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China by March 31, driven by the Supreme Court's February 20 ruling invalidating higher IEEPA-based reciprocal and fentanyl tariffs, which had previously escalated rates above 100% on many goods. The Trump administration responded with a 10% global Section 122 tariff under the Trade Act of 1974, effective February 24 and lasting until July 24 absent congressional extension, stacking atop residual Section 301 duties to yield an effective average around 10.3% per USTR trackers and analyses like Wharton's. No new escalations have materialized in the past week, with ongoing Section 301 probes into forced labor and excess capacity slated for hearings in April. Late-breaking executive orders raising Section 122 to 15% or expedited tariff hikes could shift odds, though procedural timelines make this unlikely before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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