Polymarket traders are pricing S&P 500 single-day gains and losses in Q1 2025 based on elevated volatility from persistent inflation pressures and Federal Reserve policy signals, with the index logging a peak daily gain of 1.4% on February 12 amid strong bank earnings and a 1.2% loss on March 5 following hotter-than-expected CPI data that tempered rate-cut expectations. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on VIX levels averaging 18 during the quarter, influenced by nonfarm payrolls releases and corporate revenue trends across tech and financial sectors. Upcoming Q2 catalysts include the April 30 FOMC meeting and May jobs report, which could influence retrospective Q1 volatility assessments if revisions emerge.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado$322,265 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Subida del 5%
1%
Ganancia del 4%
2%
Ganancia del 3%
4%
Ganancia del 2%
20%
Pérdida del 3%
5%
Pérdida del 4%
6%
Pérdida del 5%
1%
$322,265 Vol.
Subida del 5%
$22,985 Vol.
1%
Ganancia del 4%
$13,044 Vol.
2%
Ganancia del 3%
$5,549 Vol.
4%
Ganancia del 2%
$14,435 Vol.
20%
Pérdida del 3%
$26,070 Vol.
5%
Pérdida del 4%
$26,995 Vol.
6%
Pérdida del 5%
$174,150 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) increases by at least the listed percentage on any single trading day between January 14 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a given trading day will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on that day to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on the previous trading day, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The previous day’s closing price will be subtracted from the current day’s closing price, and then that difference will be divided by the previous day’s closing price. If the daily percentage change is negative, it will be considered a loss of that percentage in absolute terms.
Daily percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a daily percentage gain of 1.995% would be considered 2.00%, and a daily percentage gain of 1.993% would be considered 1.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) decreases by at least the listed percentage on any single trading day between January 14 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a given trading day will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on that day to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on the previous trading day, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The previous day’s closing price will be subtracted from the current day’s closing price, and then that difference will be divided by the previous day’s closing price. If the daily percentage change is negative, it will be considered a loss of that percentage in absolute terms.
Daily percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a daily percentage loss of 1.995% would be considered 2.00%, and a daily percentage loss of 1.993% would be considered 1.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).Polymarket traders are pricing S&P 500 single-day gains and losses in Q1 2025 based on elevated volatility from persistent inflation pressures and Federal Reserve policy signals, with the index logging a peak daily gain of 1.4% on February 12 amid strong bank earnings and a 1.2% loss on March 5 following hotter-than-expected CPI data that tempered rate-cut expectations. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on VIX levels averaging 18 during the quarter, influenced by nonfarm payrolls releases and corporate revenue trends across tech and financial sectors. Upcoming Q2 catalysts include the April 30 FOMC meeting and May jobs report, which could influence retrospective Q1 volatility assessments if revisions emerge.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) increases by at least the listed percentage on any single trading day between January 14 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a given trading day will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on that day to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on the previous trading day, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The previous day’s closing price will be subtracted from the current day’s closing price, and then that difference will be divided by the previous day’s closing price. If the daily percentage change is negative, it will be considered a loss of that percentage in absolute terms.
Daily percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a daily percentage gain of 1.995% would be considered 2.00%, and a daily percentage gain of 1.993% would be considered 1.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a given trading day will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on that day to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on the previous trading day, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The previous day’s closing price will be subtracted from the current day’s closing price, and then that difference will be divided by the previous day’s closing price. If the daily percentage change is negative, it will be considered a loss of that percentage in absolute terms.
Daily percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a daily percentage gain of 1.995% would be considered 2.00%, and a daily percentage gain of 1.993% would be considered 1.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
Mercado abierto: Jan 14, 2026, 5:52 PM ET
Volumen
$322,265Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 14, 2026, 5:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) increases by at least the listed percentage on any single trading day between January 14 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a given trading day will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on that day to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on the previous trading day, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The previous day’s closing price will be subtracted from the current day’s closing price, and then that difference will be divided by the previous day’s closing price. If the daily percentage change is negative, it will be considered a loss of that percentage in absolute terms.
Daily percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a daily percentage gain of 1.995% would be considered 2.00%, and a daily percentage gain of 1.993% would be considered 1.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) decreases by at least the listed percentage on any single trading day between January 14 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a given trading day will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on that day to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on the previous trading day, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The previous day’s closing price will be subtracted from the current day’s closing price, and then that difference will be divided by the previous day’s closing price. If the daily percentage change is negative, it will be considered a loss of that percentage in absolute terms.
Daily percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a daily percentage loss of 1.995% would be considered 2.00%, and a daily percentage loss of 1.993% would be considered 1.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).Polymarket traders are pricing S&P 500 single-day gains and losses in Q1 2025 based on elevated volatility from persistent inflation pressures and Federal Reserve policy signals, with the index logging a peak daily gain of 1.4% on February 12 amid strong bank earnings and a 1.2% loss on March 5 following hotter-than-expected CPI data that tempered rate-cut expectations. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on VIX levels averaging 18 during the quarter, influenced by nonfarm payrolls releases and corporate revenue trends across tech and financial sectors. Upcoming Q2 catalysts include the April 30 FOMC meeting and May jobs report, which could influence retrospective Q1 volatility assessments if revisions emerge.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) increases by at least the listed percentage on any single trading day between January 14 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a given trading day will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on that day to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on the previous trading day, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The previous day’s closing price will be subtracted from the current day’s closing price, and then that difference will be divided by the previous day’s closing price. If the daily percentage change is negative, it will be considered a loss of that percentage in absolute terms.
Daily percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a daily percentage gain of 1.995% would be considered 2.00%, and a daily percentage gain of 1.993% would be considered 1.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a given trading day will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on that day to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on the previous trading day, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The previous day’s closing price will be subtracted from the current day’s closing price, and then that difference will be divided by the previous day’s closing price. If the daily percentage change is negative, it will be considered a loss of that percentage in absolute terms.
Daily percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a daily percentage gain of 1.995% would be considered 2.00%, and a daily percentage gain of 1.993% would be considered 1.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
Volumen
$322,265Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 14, 2026, 5:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders are pricing S&P 500 single-day gains and losses in Q1 2025 based on elevated volatility from persistent inflation pressures and Federal Reserve policy signals, with the index logging a peak daily gain of 1.4% on February 12 amid strong bank earnings and a 1.2% loss on March 5 following hotter-than-expected CPI data that tempered rate-cut expectations. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on VIX levels averaging 18 during the quarter, influenced by nonfarm payrolls releases and corporate revenue trends across tech and financial sectors. Upcoming Q2 catalysts include the April 30 FOMC meeting and May jobs report, which could influence retrospective Q1 volatility assessments if revisions emerge.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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