Polymarket traders assign a slim 17% implied probability to silver (SI) exceeding $115 in June settlement, edging out clustered mid-range bins at 12-13.5%, signaling fragmented sentiment amid aggressive upside bets versus recession fears. Primary driver is the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts—traders price in 75-100 bps easing by mid-2025 per CME FedWatch—boosting precious metals as inflation hedges, compounded by surging industrial demand from solar PV and EV sectors (projected 15% YoY growth per Silver Institute). Key differentiators include USD strength thresholds below 105 DXY favoring highs, versus sticky inflation above 3% CPI capping at $60-90; upcoming catalysts like December FOMC and Q4 GDP releases will sharpen consensus, with historical June volatility averaging 8% underscoring resolution risks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿En qué se liquidará Silver (SI) en junio?
¿En qué se liquidará Silver (SI) en junio?
>$115 17%
$100-$115 14%
$60-$70 12.6%
<$50 12%
$375,303 Vol.
$375,303 Vol.
<$50
12%
$50-$60
12%
$60-$70
13%
$70-$80
12%
$80-$90
11%
$90-$100
11%
$100-$115
14%
>$115
17%
>$115 17%
$100-$115 14%
$60-$70 12.6%
<$50 12%
$375,303 Vol.
$375,303 Vol.
<$50
12%
$50-$60
12%
$60-$70
13%
$70-$80
12%
$80-$90
11%
$90-$100
11%
$100-$115
14%
>$115
17%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (March, May, July, September, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month becomes a non-active month effective on its First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Silver (SI) futures.
Mercado abierto: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a slim 17% implied probability to silver (SI) exceeding $115 in June settlement, edging out clustered mid-range bins at 12-13.5%, signaling fragmented sentiment amid aggressive upside bets versus recession fears. Primary driver is the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts—traders price in 75-100 bps easing by mid-2025 per CME FedWatch—boosting precious metals as inflation hedges, compounded by surging industrial demand from solar PV and EV sectors (projected 15% YoY growth per Silver Institute). Key differentiators include USD strength thresholds below 105 DXY favoring highs, versus sticky inflation above 3% CPI capping at $60-90; upcoming catalysts like December FOMC and Q4 GDP releases will sharpen consensus, with historical June volatility averaging 8% underscoring resolution risks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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