Rep. Kevin Hern's 90.5% implied probability in the Oklahoma Republican Senate primary reflects his swift dominance following Sen. Markwayne Mullin's nomination as Homeland Security Secretary, vacating the seat and triggering a special election. Hern launched his campaign on March 11, secured a rapid endorsement from President Trump two days later, and garnered backing from Senate Majority Leader John Thune and NRSC Chair Tim Scott on March 19, consolidating establishment and MAGA support. Early Pulse Decision Science polling shows Hern leading hypothetical matchups, including 52% over Gov. Kevin Stitt and 49% over Rep. Stephanie Bice, who opted not to run. Lt. Gov. Matt Pinnell trails at 2.4% amid candidate filing in April ahead of the June primary, with potential challenges from scandals or rival endorsements.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoGanador de las primarias republicanas del Senado de Oklahoma
Ganador de las primarias republicanas del Senado de Oklahoma
Kevin Hern 91%
Nick Hankins 3.0%
Matt Pinnell 3.0%
Wayne Lonny Washington 2.9%
$50,040 Vol.
$50,040 Vol.
Kevin Hern
91%
Nick Hankins
3%
Matt Pinnell
3%
Wayne Lonny Washington
3%
John M. O’Connor
2%
Stephanie Bice
1%
Markwayne Mullin
1%
Ron Meinhardt
1%
Tammy Swearengin
1%
Donelle Harder
<1%
Kevin Hern 91%
Nick Hankins 3.0%
Matt Pinnell 3.0%
Wayne Lonny Washington 2.9%
$50,040 Vol.
$50,040 Vol.
Kevin Hern
91%
Nick Hankins
3%
Matt Pinnell
3%
Wayne Lonny Washington
3%
John M. O’Connor
2%
Stephanie Bice
1%
Markwayne Mullin
1%
Ron Meinhardt
1%
Tammy Swearengin
1%
Donelle Harder
<1%
If no 2026 Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Mercado abierto: Mar 5, 2026, 5:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If no 2026 Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Rep. Kevin Hern's 90.5% implied probability in the Oklahoma Republican Senate primary reflects his swift dominance following Sen. Markwayne Mullin's nomination as Homeland Security Secretary, vacating the seat and triggering a special election. Hern launched his campaign on March 11, secured a rapid endorsement from President Trump two days later, and garnered backing from Senate Majority Leader John Thune and NRSC Chair Tim Scott on March 19, consolidating establishment and MAGA support. Early Pulse Decision Science polling shows Hern leading hypothetical matchups, including 52% over Gov. Kevin Stitt and 49% over Rep. Stephanie Bice, who opted not to run. Lt. Gov. Matt Pinnell trails at 2.4% amid candidate filing in April ahead of the June primary, with potential challenges from scandals or rival endorsements.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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