Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service and ensemble model forecasts for Austin's April 3 high temperature, with GFS and ECMWF runs clustering around 86-91°F amid a persistent upper-level ridge over Central Texas fostering southwesterly flow and above-normal warmth. March 2026's record-breaking average temperatures (69.5°F so far) have entrenched this pattern, boosting implied probabilities for 86-87°F (26.5%) and 88-89°F (26.0%), while higher outliers like 94°F+ (21.5%) account for potential intensification if high pressure strengthens. Key differentiators include cloud cover variability, possible weak frontal timing, and soil moisture deficits amplifying heat; new 00z/12z model updates expected today could sharpen the outlook before resolution at Austin-Bergstrom Airport. Historical early-April averages hover near 78°F, underscoring the anomalous ridge's influence.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Austin on April 3?
Highest temperature in Austin on April 3?
86-87°F 27%
88-89°F 26%
90-91°F 22%
84-85°F 19%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
75°F or below
7%
76-77°F
15%
78-79°F
15%
80-81°F
18%
82-83°F
19%
84-85°F
19%
86-87°F
27%
88-89°F
26%
90-91°F
22%
92-93°F
18%
94°F or higher
14%
86-87°F 27%
88-89°F 26%
90-91°F 22%
84-85°F 19%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
75°F or below
$164 Vol.
7%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
15%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
15%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
18%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
19%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
19%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
27%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
26%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
22%
92-93°F
$0 Vol.
18%
94°F or higher
$10 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service and ensemble model forecasts for Austin's April 3 high temperature, with GFS and ECMWF runs clustering around 86-91°F amid a persistent upper-level ridge over Central Texas fostering southwesterly flow and above-normal warmth. March 2026's record-breaking average temperatures (69.5°F so far) have entrenched this pattern, boosting implied probabilities for 86-87°F (26.5%) and 88-89°F (26.0%), while higher outliers like 94°F+ (21.5%) account for potential intensification if high pressure strengthens. Key differentiators include cloud cover variability, possible weak frontal timing, and soil moisture deficits amplifying heat; new 00z/12z model updates expected today could sharpen the outlook before resolution at Austin-Bergstrom Airport. Historical early-April averages hover near 78°F, underscoring the anomalous ridge's influence.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 29, 2026, 3:05 PM ET
Volumen
$174Fecha de finalización
Apr 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 3:05 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service and ensemble model forecasts for Austin's April 3 high temperature, with GFS and ECMWF runs clustering around 86-91°F amid a persistent upper-level ridge over Central Texas fostering southwesterly flow and above-normal warmth. March 2026's record-breaking average temperatures (69.5°F so far) have entrenched this pattern, boosting implied probabilities for 86-87°F (26.5%) and 88-89°F (26.0%), while higher outliers like 94°F+ (21.5%) account for potential intensification if high pressure strengthens. Key differentiators include cloud cover variability, possible weak frontal timing, and soil moisture deficits amplifying heat; new 00z/12z model updates expected today could sharpen the outlook before resolution at Austin-Bergstrom Airport. Historical early-April averages hover near 78°F, underscoring the anomalous ridge's influence.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$174Fecha de finalización
Apr 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 3:05 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service and ensemble model forecasts for Austin's April 3 high temperature, with GFS and ECMWF runs clustering around 86-91°F amid a persistent upper-level ridge over Central Texas fostering southwesterly flow and above-normal warmth. March 2026's record-breaking average temperatures (69.5°F so far) have entrenched this pattern, boosting implied probabilities for 86-87°F (26.5%) and 88-89°F (26.0%), while higher outliers like 94°F+ (21.5%) account for potential intensification if high pressure strengthens. Key differentiators include cloud cover variability, possible weak frontal timing, and soil moisture deficits amplifying heat; new 00z/12z model updates expected today could sharpen the outlook before resolution at Austin-Bergstrom Airport. Historical early-April averages hover near 78°F, underscoring the anomalous ridge's influence.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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