Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest 55% implied probability for Apple (AAPL) closing above $240 by March 31, reflecting caution amid recent China sales weakness offsetting robust U.S. services growth and AI momentum from iPhone 16 upgrades. AAPL trades at $228 today, up 2.5% weekly on holiday quarter optimism, but antitrust scrutiny and softening iPad/Mac demand cap upside. Key catalysts include March 12 CPI data and March 19 FOMC meeting, where persistent inflation could delay rate cuts hurting tech multiples; Q1 earnings on February 6 already baked in 8% YoY revenue growth projection. Historical EOM volatility averages 4%, with $240 needing ~5% gain—feasible but hinged on macro stability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado$329,336 Vol.
$210
99%
$220
94%
$230
91%
$240
76%
$250
42%
$260
7%
$270
4%
$280
5%
$290
2%
$300
1%
$310
1%
$320
1%
$330
<1%
$329,336 Vol.
$210
99%
$220
94%
$230
91%
$240
76%
$250
42%
$260
7%
$270
4%
$280
5%
$290
2%
$300
1%
$310
1%
$320
1%
$330
<1%
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Apple (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history, published under "Historical Prices."
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Mercado abierto: Feb 27, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest 55% implied probability for Apple (AAPL) closing above $240 by March 31, reflecting caution amid recent China sales weakness offsetting robust U.S. services growth and AI momentum from iPhone 16 upgrades. AAPL trades at $228 today, up 2.5% weekly on holiday quarter optimism, but antitrust scrutiny and softening iPad/Mac demand cap upside. Key catalysts include March 12 CPI data and March 19 FOMC meeting, where persistent inflation could delay rate cuts hurting tech multiples; Q1 earnings on February 6 already baked in 8% YoY revenue growth projection. Historical EOM volatility averages 4%, with $240 needing ~5% gain—feasible but hinged on macro stability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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