**Trader consensus on the Elon Musk tweet count market for September 4–11, 2026, centers on the 160-179 bracket at 58% implied probability, followed by 180-199 at 28.5%.** This positioning stems from Musk’s observed posting rhythm of roughly 20–30 main-feed posts, quotes, and reposts per day across the window, which aligns with the moderate-volume pattern seen in recent settled periods such as the 160-179 outcome for late August. Real-time trackers show the count already at 122 by early September 10, with continued activity on September 10—including commentary on The Boring Company’s funding round, platform dynamics, and lighter replies—pushing the total toward the 160-179 range without the sustained spikes that produced 200-plus weeks earlier in the month. Precursor brackets in early September settled lower (40-64 for a short stretch) or higher (220-239), illustrating how daily output fluctuates with news cycles rather than following a fixed schedule. With only one full day remaining before resolution on September 11, traders appear to view a sharp acceleration or slowdown as unlikely absent a major catalyst. The market-implied odds therefore reflect aggregated capital-weighted assessment of Musk’s established cadence and the absence of breakout events that would shift the bracket decisively higher or lower.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado160-179 55%
180-199 35%
140-159 4.7%
200-219 4.6%
$1,572,982 Vol.
$1,572,982 Vol.
120-139
<1%
140-159
5%
160-179
55%
180-199
35%
200-219
5%
220-239
1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
160-179 55%
180-199 35%
140-159 4.7%
200-219 4.6%
$1,572,982 Vol.
$1,572,982 Vol.
120-139
<1%
140-159
5%
160-179
55%
180-199
35%
200-219
5%
220-239
1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Sep 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Fuente de resolución
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Fuente de resolución
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on the Elon Musk tweet count market for September 4–11, 2026, centers on the 160-179 bracket at 58% implied probability, followed by 180-199 at 28.5%.** This positioning stems from Musk’s observed posting rhythm of roughly 20–30 main-feed posts, quotes, and reposts per day across the window, which aligns with the moderate-volume pattern seen in recent settled periods such as the 160-179 outcome for late August. Real-time trackers show the count already at 122 by early September 10, with continued activity on September 10—including commentary on The Boring Company’s funding round, platform dynamics, and lighter replies—pushing the total toward the 160-179 range without the sustained spikes that produced 200-plus weeks earlier in the month. Precursor brackets in early September settled lower (40-64 for a short stretch) or higher (220-239), illustrating how daily output fluctuates with news cycles rather than following a fixed schedule. With only one full day remaining before resolution on September 11, traders appear to view a sharp acceleration or slowdown as unlikely absent a major catalyst. The market-implied odds therefore reflect aggregated capital-weighted assessment of Musk’s established cadence and the absence of breakout events that would shift the bracket decisively higher or lower.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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