Russian forces continue pressing assaults on Toretsk, a strategically vital Donetsk Oblast frontline town, following confirmed advances into nearby villages like Pleshchiivka and Stara Mykolaivka in late November, according to Institute for the Study of War assessments. Ukrainian military reports repelling intensified infantry and drone attacks over the past 48 hours, holding the town center amid heavy artillery barrages and encirclement threats from the east. No full capture verified; escalation persists without ceasefire signals. Traders eye Ukrainian reinforcement logistics, potential U.S. aid packages post-election, and harsh winter weather as pivotal factors through year-end resolution windows, reflecting trader consensus on protracted fighting.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertWird Russland Toretske erobern bis...?
Wird Russland Toretske erobern bis...?
$48,731 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
31. März
5%
30. April
34%
$48,731 Vol.
31. März
$32,221 Vol.
5%
30. April
$104 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494901° N, 37.365342° E in Toretske, Donetsk Oblast, by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To1.png
Intersection Location in Toretske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To2.png
Toretske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/fs9k1LmA4CbPP4tLA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494901° N, 37.365342° E in Toretske, Donetsk Oblast, by April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To1.png
Intersection Location in Toretske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To2.png
Toretske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/fs9k1LmA4CbPP4tLA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494901° N, 37.365342° E in Toretske, Donetsk Oblast, by February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To1.png
Intersection Location in Toretske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To2.png
Toretske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/fs9k1LmA4CbPP4tLA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces continue pressing assaults on Toretsk, a strategically vital Donetsk Oblast frontline town, following confirmed advances into nearby villages like Pleshchiivka and Stara Mykolaivka in late November, according to Institute for the Study of War assessments. Ukrainian military reports repelling intensified infantry and drone attacks over the past 48 hours, holding the town center amid heavy artillery barrages and encirclement threats from the east. No full capture verified; escalation persists without ceasefire signals. Traders eye Ukrainian reinforcement logistics, potential U.S. aid packages post-election, and harsh winter weather as pivotal factors through year-end resolution windows, reflecting trader consensus on protracted fighting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494901° N, 37.365342° E in Toretske, Donetsk Oblast, by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To1.png
Intersection Location in Toretske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To2.png
Toretske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/fs9k1LmA4CbPP4tLA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To1.png
Intersection Location in Toretske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To2.png
Toretske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/fs9k1LmA4CbPP4tLA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 4, 2026, 1:10 PM ET
Volumen
$48,731Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 4, 2026, 1:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494901° N, 37.365342° E in Toretske, Donetsk Oblast, by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To1.png
Intersection Location in Toretske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To2.png
Toretske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/fs9k1LmA4CbPP4tLA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494901° N, 37.365342° E in Toretske, Donetsk Oblast, by April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To1.png
Intersection Location in Toretske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To2.png
Toretske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/fs9k1LmA4CbPP4tLA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494901° N, 37.365342° E in Toretske, Donetsk Oblast, by February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To1.png
Intersection Location in Toretske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To2.png
Toretske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/fs9k1LmA4CbPP4tLA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces continue pressing assaults on Toretsk, a strategically vital Donetsk Oblast frontline town, following confirmed advances into nearby villages like Pleshchiivka and Stara Mykolaivka in late November, according to Institute for the Study of War assessments. Ukrainian military reports repelling intensified infantry and drone attacks over the past 48 hours, holding the town center amid heavy artillery barrages and encirclement threats from the east. No full capture verified; escalation persists without ceasefire signals. Traders eye Ukrainian reinforcement logistics, potential U.S. aid packages post-election, and harsh winter weather as pivotal factors through year-end resolution windows, reflecting trader consensus on protracted fighting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494901° N, 37.365342° E in Toretske, Donetsk Oblast, by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To1.png
Intersection Location in Toretske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To2.png
Toretske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/fs9k1LmA4CbPP4tLA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To1.png
Intersection Location in Toretske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To2.png
Toretske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/fs9k1LmA4CbPP4tLA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volumen
$48,731Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 4, 2026, 1:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces continue pressing assaults on Toretsk, a strategically vital Donetsk Oblast frontline town, following confirmed advances into nearby villages like Pleshchiivka and Stara Mykolaivka in late November, according to Institute for the Study of War assessments. Ukrainian military reports repelling intensified infantry and drone attacks over the past 48 hours, holding the town center amid heavy artillery barrages and encirclement threats from the east. No full capture verified; escalation persists without ceasefire signals. Traders eye Ukrainian reinforcement logistics, potential U.S. aid packages post-election, and harsh winter weather as pivotal factors through year-end resolution windows, reflecting trader consensus on protracted fighting.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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