Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a subdued 2026 UK annual GDP growth trajectory, with sub-zero expansion leading at 33.5% implied probability and 0-1% close behind at 27.5%, reflecting closely contested dynamics amid heightened recession risks. Primary catalysts include January 2026's flat monthly GDP—marking a weak Q1 start—and surging energy costs from the Iran conflict, which have elevated oil prices and inflation pressures, prompting warnings from Morgan Stanley and others of contraction. Official forecasts like the OBR's 1.1% remain moderately optimistic, buoyed by softening wage growth to 3.8% (weakest in five years) and labor market stabilization, but traders weigh geopolitical escalation and Bank of England rate path uncertainty as key swing factors. Watch Q1 GDP release and April MPC for resolution signals.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert<0 34%
1-2 % 11%
3-4 % 10.0%
4-5 % 9%
NEU
NEU
12. Feb. 2027
<0
34%
0–1 %
28%
1-2 %
21%
2–3 %
6%
3-4 %
10%
4-5 %
9%
5 %+
6%
<0 34%
1-2 % 11%
3-4 % 10.0%
4-5 % 9%
NEU
NEU
12. Feb. 2027
<0
$229 Vol.
34%
0–1 %
$248 Vol.
28%
1-2 %
$205 Vol.
21%
2–3 %
$206 Vol.
6%
3-4 %
$193 Vol.
10%
4-5 %
$283 Vol.
9%
5 %+
$230 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a subdued 2026 UK annual GDP growth trajectory, with sub-zero expansion leading at 33.5% implied probability and 0-1% close behind at 27.5%, reflecting closely contested dynamics amid heightened recession risks. Primary catalysts include January 2026's flat monthly GDP—marking a weak Q1 start—and surging energy costs from the Iran conflict, which have elevated oil prices and inflation pressures, prompting warnings from Morgan Stanley and others of contraction. Official forecasts like the OBR's 1.1% remain moderately optimistic, buoyed by softening wage growth to 3.8% (weakest in five years) and labor market stabilization, but traders weigh geopolitical escalation and Bank of England rate path uncertainty as key swing factors. Watch Q1 GDP release and April MPC for resolution signals.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Volumen
$1,594Enddatum
12. Feb. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a subdued 2026 UK annual GDP growth trajectory, with sub-zero expansion leading at 33.5% implied probability and 0-1% close behind at 27.5%, reflecting closely contested dynamics amid heightened recession risks. Primary catalysts include January 2026's flat monthly GDP—marking a weak Q1 start—and surging energy costs from the Iran conflict, which have elevated oil prices and inflation pressures, prompting warnings from Morgan Stanley and others of contraction. Official forecasts like the OBR's 1.1% remain moderately optimistic, buoyed by softening wage growth to 3.8% (weakest in five years) and labor market stabilization, but traders weigh geopolitical escalation and Bank of England rate path uncertainty as key swing factors. Watch Q1 GDP release and April MPC for resolution signals.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$1,594Enddatum
12. Feb. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a subdued 2026 UK annual GDP growth trajectory, with sub-zero expansion leading at 33.5% implied probability and 0-1% close behind at 27.5%, reflecting closely contested dynamics amid heightened recession risks. Primary catalysts include January 2026's flat monthly GDP—marking a weak Q1 start—and surging energy costs from the Iran conflict, which have elevated oil prices and inflation pressures, prompting warnings from Morgan Stanley and others of contraction. Official forecasts like the OBR's 1.1% remain moderately optimistic, buoyed by softening wage growth to 3.8% (weakest in five years) and labor market stabilization, but traders weigh geopolitical escalation and Bank of England rate path uncertainty as key swing factors. Watch Q1 GDP release and April MPC for resolution signals.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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