U.S. Rep. Kevin Hern leads trader consensus at 81.5% implied probability to win Oklahoma's Republican U.S. Senate primary, driven by his incumbency advantage as a Tulsa-area congressman, robust fundraising from national GOP donors, and appeal to Trump-aligned conservatives seeking a primary challenge to vulnerable incumbent Sen. James Lankford. Lankford's standing remains weakened among the GOP base following backlash to his role in bipartisan border security negotiations earlier this year, with no recent polling shifts or announcements altering the landscape in the past 30 days. Other candidates like Rep. Stephanie Bice and Lt. Gov. Matt Pinnell trail far behind due to lower name recognition and fundraising. Candidate filing deadlines loom in spring 2026 ahead of the June primary.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertPrimary Winner des republikanischen Senats von Oklahoma
Primary Winner des republikanischen Senats von Oklahoma
Kevin Hern 82%
John M. O’Connor 1.8%
Stephanie Bice 1.7%
Wayne Lonny Washington 1.6%
$10,847 Vol.
$10,847 Vol.
Kevin Hern
82%
John M. O’Connor
2%
Stephanie Bice
2%
Wayne Lonny Washington
2%
Matt Pinnell
1%
Markwayne Mullin
1%
Ron Meinhardt
1%
Tammy Swearengin
1%
Nick Hankins
1%
Donelle Harder
1%
Kevin Hern 82%
John M. O’Connor 1.8%
Stephanie Bice 1.7%
Wayne Lonny Washington 1.6%
$10,847 Vol.
$10,847 Vol.
Kevin Hern
82%
John M. O’Connor
2%
Stephanie Bice
2%
Wayne Lonny Washington
2%
Matt Pinnell
1%
Markwayne Mullin
1%
Ron Meinhardt
1%
Tammy Swearengin
1%
Nick Hankins
1%
Donelle Harder
1%
If no 2026 Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 5, 2026, 5:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...U.S. Rep. Kevin Hern leads trader consensus at 81.5% implied probability to win Oklahoma's Republican U.S. Senate primary, driven by his incumbency advantage as a Tulsa-area congressman, robust fundraising from national GOP donors, and appeal to Trump-aligned conservatives seeking a primary challenge to vulnerable incumbent Sen. James Lankford. Lankford's standing remains weakened among the GOP base following backlash to his role in bipartisan border security negotiations earlier this year, with no recent polling shifts or announcements altering the landscape in the past 30 days. Other candidates like Rep. Stephanie Bice and Lt. Gov. Matt Pinnell trail far behind due to lower name recognition and fundraising. Candidate filing deadlines loom in spring 2026 ahead of the June primary.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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