US and Israeli forces continue intensive airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear targets, with over 11,000 sites degraded since the conflict began on February 28, including recent operations in Tehran and strikes on defense industries reported as late as March 27. President Trump paused attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure until April 6 to facilitate talks, but Iran dismissed a US 15-point ceasefire proposal and hardened its counter-demands, while suggesting today potential US seizure of Kharg Island oil terminal signals no de-escalation. Ongoing Iranian missile and drone barrages against Israel and Gulf states reinforce trader consensus at 99.2% for action persisting through March 31. A dramatic diplomatic breakthrough or unilateral halt before resolution could shift odds, though stalled negotiations and daily operations make this unlikely.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$2,976,973 Vol.
$2,976,973 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
31. März
1%
Militärische Maßnahmen bis zum 31. März
99%
$2,976,973 Vol.
$2,976,973 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
31. März
$424,854 Vol.
1%
Militärische Maßnahmen bis zum 31. März
$749,581 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces continue intensive airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear targets, with over 11,000 sites degraded since the conflict began on February 28, including recent operations in Tehran and strikes on defense industries reported as late as March 27. President Trump paused attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure until April 6 to facilitate talks, but Iran dismissed a US 15-point ceasefire proposal and hardened its counter-demands, while suggesting today potential US seizure of Kharg Island oil terminal signals no de-escalation. Ongoing Iranian missile and drone barrages against Israel and Gulf states reinforce trader consensus at 99.2% for action persisting through March 31. A dramatic diplomatic breakthrough or unilateral halt before resolution could shift odds, though stalled negotiations and daily operations make this unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volumen
$2,976,973Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces continue intensive airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear targets, with over 11,000 sites degraded since the conflict began on February 28, including recent operations in Tehran and strikes on defense industries reported as late as March 27. President Trump paused attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure until April 6 to facilitate talks, but Iran dismissed a US 15-point ceasefire proposal and hardened its counter-demands, while suggesting today potential US seizure of Kharg Island oil terminal signals no de-escalation. Ongoing Iranian missile and drone barrages against Israel and Gulf states reinforce trader consensus at 99.2% for action persisting through March 31. A dramatic diplomatic breakthrough or unilateral halt before resolution could shift odds, though stalled negotiations and daily operations make this unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,976,973Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
US and Israeli forces continue intensive airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear targets, with over 11,000 sites degraded since the conflict began on February 28, including recent operations in Tehran and strikes on defense industries reported as late as March 27. President Trump paused attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure until April 6 to facilitate talks, but Iran dismissed a US 15-point ceasefire proposal and hardened its counter-demands, while suggesting today potential US seizure of Kharg Island oil terminal signals no de-escalation. Ongoing Iranian missile and drone barrages against Israel and Gulf states reinforce trader consensus at 99.2% for action persisting through March 31. A dramatic diplomatic breakthrough or unilateral halt before resolution could shift odds, though stalled negotiations and daily operations make this unlikely.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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