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Politik·Magyar

Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?

Market icon
Politik·Magyar

Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?

25% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
25% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).Despite recent independent polls like 21 Research and Závecz showing Péter Magyar's TISZA party leading Viktor Orbán's Fidesz by 13–19 points among decided voters ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election, Hungary's mixed electoral system—106 winner-take-all single-member districts plus 93 proportional list seats—erects high barriers to TISZA securing the 133-seat constitutional majority needed for a supermajority. Pro-Fidesz projections forecast the incumbents winning 66 districts via rural strongholds and gerrymandered boundaries, while TISZA dominates urban areas; national polling averages place TISZA at 49% versus Fidesz's 39%, but undecided voters and fragmented smaller parties like Mi Hazánk dilute opposition gains. Trader consensus embodies this skepticism, pricing low odds on TISZA overcoming historical precedents where vote leads fall short of two-thirds control.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Volumen
$6,960
Enddatum
12. Apr. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 5:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).Despite recent independent polls like 21 Research and Závecz showing Péter Magyar's TISZA party leading Viktor Orbán's Fidesz by 13–19 points among decided voters ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election, Hungary's mixed electoral system—106 winner-take-all single-member districts plus 93 proportional list seats—erects high barriers to TISZA securing the 133-seat constitutional majority needed for a supermajority. Pro-Fidesz projections forecast the incumbents winning 66 districts via rural strongholds and gerrymandered boundaries, while TISZA dominates urban areas; national polling averages place TISZA at 49% versus Fidesz's 39%, but undecided voters and fragmented smaller parties like Mi Hazánk dilute opposition gains. Trader consensus embodies this skepticism, pricing low odds on TISZA overcoming historical precedents where vote leads fall short of two-thirds control.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Volumen
$6,960
Enddatum
12. Apr. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 5:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).

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