Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 79.5% implied probability for no change to the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, propelled by yesterday's robust March nonfarm payrolls report showing 178,000 jobs added—tripling the 60,000 forecast—and unemployment edging down to 4.3%. This bolsters the resilient labor market amid February CPI inflation steady at 2.4% year-over-year, aligning with Chair Powell's recent comments affirming satisfaction with the 3.50%-3.75% target range despite transient energy shocks. A 15.5% chance of a 25 basis point cut captures modest easing bets for later 2026, while hike odds below 5% reflect absent overheating signals. Key catalysts ahead include March CPI on April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertNo change 79%
25 bps decrease 16%
25 bps increase 3.6%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$3,280,532 Vol.
$3,280,532 Vol.
29. Juli 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
16%
No change
79%
25 bps increase
4%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 79%
25 bps decrease 16%
25 bps increase 3.6%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$3,280,532 Vol.
$3,280,532 Vol.
29. Juli 2026
50+ bps decrease
$86,409 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$71,460 Vol.
16%
No change
$77,866 Vol.
79%
25 bps increase
$2,929,166 Vol.
4%
50+ bps increase
$115,630 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 79.5% implied probability for no change to the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, propelled by yesterday's robust March nonfarm payrolls report showing 178,000 jobs added—tripling the 60,000 forecast—and unemployment edging down to 4.3%. This bolsters the resilient labor market amid February CPI inflation steady at 2.4% year-over-year, aligning with Chair Powell's recent comments affirming satisfaction with the 3.50%-3.75% target range despite transient energy shocks. A 15.5% chance of a 25 basis point cut captures modest easing bets for later 2026, while hike odds below 5% reflect absent overheating signals. Key catalysts ahead include March CPI on April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volumen
$3,280,532Enddatum
29. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 79.5% implied probability for no change to the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, propelled by yesterday's robust March nonfarm payrolls report showing 178,000 jobs added—tripling the 60,000 forecast—and unemployment edging down to 4.3%. This bolsters the resilient labor market amid February CPI inflation steady at 2.4% year-over-year, aligning with Chair Powell's recent comments affirming satisfaction with the 3.50%-3.75% target range despite transient energy shocks. A 15.5% chance of a 25 basis point cut captures modest easing bets for later 2026, while hike odds below 5% reflect absent overheating signals. Key catalysts ahead include March CPI on April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$3,280,532Enddatum
29. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 79.5% implied probability for no change to the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, propelled by yesterday's robust March nonfarm payrolls report showing 178,000 jobs added—tripling the 60,000 forecast—and unemployment edging down to 4.3%. This bolsters the resilient labor market amid February CPI inflation steady at 2.4% year-over-year, aligning with Chair Powell's recent comments affirming satisfaction with the 3.50%-3.75% target range despite transient energy shocks. A 15.5% chance of a 25 basis point cut captures modest easing bets for later 2026, while hike odds below 5% reflect absent overheating signals. Key catalysts ahead include March CPI on April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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