Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 73%, reflecting economist forecasts from IMF and others projecting a slowdown to around 4.5% amid structural challenges like the ongoing property sector crisis, demographic aging, and weak domestic consumption. Recent Politburo directives from the December 2024 Central Economic Work Conference emphasized boosting consumption and stabilizing real estate through fiscal stimulus and PBOC monetary easing, including rate cuts, yet analysts remain skeptical of reversing deflationary pressures and high local government debt. Exports face headwinds from potential U.S. tariffs, contributing to the 25% odds on 5.0–6.0% as a more optimistic stimulus scenario, while higher bands see negligible support due to entrenched headwinds. Key 2025 data releases and the March National People's Congress growth target will likely influence near-term shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert4,0–5,0 % 73%
5,0–6,0 % 25.4%
1,0–2,0 % 2.4%
7,0–8,0 % 2.0%
$188,361 Vol.
$188,361 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
<1,0 %
<1%
1,0–2,0 %
2%
2,0–3,0 %
1%
3,0–4,0 %
1%
4,0–5,0 %
73%
5,0–6,0 %
25%
6,0-7,0 %
1%
7,0–8,0 %
2%
8,0–9,0 %
1%
9,0 %+
<1%
4,0–5,0 % 73%
5,0–6,0 % 25.4%
1,0–2,0 % 2.4%
7,0–8,0 % 2.0%
$188,361 Vol.
$188,361 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
<1,0 %
$16,070 Vol.
<1%
1,0–2,0 %
$25,600 Vol.
2%
2,0–3,0 %
$4,779 Vol.
1%
3,0–4,0 %
$5,507 Vol.
1%
4,0–5,0 %
$10,000 Vol.
73%
5,0–6,0 %
$10,035 Vol.
25%
6,0-7,0 %
$16,529 Vol.
1%
7,0–8,0 %
$27,545 Vol.
2%
8,0–9,0 %
$5,076 Vol.
1%
9,0 %+
$67,221 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 73%, reflecting economist forecasts from IMF and others projecting a slowdown to around 4.5% amid structural challenges like the ongoing property sector crisis, demographic aging, and weak domestic consumption. Recent Politburo directives from the December 2024 Central Economic Work Conference emphasized boosting consumption and stabilizing real estate through fiscal stimulus and PBOC monetary easing, including rate cuts, yet analysts remain skeptical of reversing deflationary pressures and high local government debt. Exports face headwinds from potential U.S. tariffs, contributing to the 25% odds on 5.0–6.0% as a more optimistic stimulus scenario, while higher bands see negligible support due to entrenched headwinds. Key 2025 data releases and the March National People's Congress growth target will likely influence near-term shifts.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volumen
$188,361Enddatum
Jan 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 73%, reflecting economist forecasts from IMF and others projecting a slowdown to around 4.5% amid structural challenges like the ongoing property sector crisis, demographic aging, and weak domestic consumption. Recent Politburo directives from the December 2024 Central Economic Work Conference emphasized boosting consumption and stabilizing real estate through fiscal stimulus and PBOC monetary easing, including rate cuts, yet analysts remain skeptical of reversing deflationary pressures and high local government debt. Exports face headwinds from potential U.S. tariffs, contributing to the 25% odds on 5.0–6.0% as a more optimistic stimulus scenario, while higher bands see negligible support due to entrenched headwinds. Key 2025 data releases and the March National People's Congress growth target will likely influence near-term shifts.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$188,361Enddatum
Jan 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 73%, reflecting economist forecasts from IMF and others projecting a slowdown to around 4.5% amid structural challenges like the ongoing property sector crisis, demographic aging, and weak domestic consumption. Recent Politburo directives from the December 2024 Central Economic Work Conference emphasized boosting consumption and stabilizing real estate through fiscal stimulus and PBOC monetary easing, including rate cuts, yet analysts remain skeptical of reversing deflationary pressures and high local government debt. Exports face headwinds from potential U.S. tariffs, contributing to the 25% odds on 5.0–6.0% as a more optimistic stimulus scenario, while higher bands see negligible support due to entrenched headwinds. Key 2025 data releases and the March National People's Congress growth target will likely influence near-term shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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