Market icon

Category 5 hurricane hits US before election?

<1% chance
Polymarket

$94,457 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any named tropical system makes landfall in the contiguous United States as a Category 5 hurricane between October 8 and November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If any hurricane makes multiple landfalls in the contiguous United States, each landfall will be considered for the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, hurricane categories are defined by NOAA (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php), and a hurricane landfall is considered to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL).

This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC for whether a system has made landfall in the contiguous United States at a strength of category 5, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
Volumen
$94,457
Enddatum
Nov 4, 2024
Erstellt am
Oct 9, 2024, 6:42 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any named tropical system makes landfall in the contiguous United States as a Category 5 hurricane between October 8 and November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If any hurricane makes multiple landfalls in the contiguous United States, each landfall will be considered for the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, hurricane categories are defined by NOAA (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php), and a hurricane landfall is considered to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL). This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC for whether a system has made landfall in the contiguous United States at a strength of category 5, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No

Kein Einspruch

Endgültiges Ergebnis: No

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Category 5 hurricane hits US before election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Category 5 hurricane hits US before election?" has generated $94.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 9, 2024. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Category 5 hurricane hits US before election?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Category 5 hurricane hits US before election?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Category 5 hurricane hits US before election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Market icon

Category 5 hurricane hits US before election?

<1% chance
Polymarket

$94,457 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any named tropical system makes landfall in the contiguous United States as a Category 5 hurricane between October 8 and November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If any hurricane makes multiple landfalls in the contiguous United States, each landfall will be considered for the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, hurricane categories are defined by NOAA (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php), and a hurricane landfall is considered to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL).

This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC for whether a system has made landfall in the contiguous United States at a strength of category 5, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
Volumen
$94,457
Enddatum
Nov 4, 2024
Erstellt am
Oct 9, 2024, 6:42 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any named tropical system makes landfall in the contiguous United States as a Category 5 hurricane between October 8 and November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If any hurricane makes multiple landfalls in the contiguous United States, each landfall will be considered for the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, hurricane categories are defined by NOAA (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php), and a hurricane landfall is considered to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL). This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC for whether a system has made landfall in the contiguous United States at a strength of category 5, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No

Kein Einspruch

Endgültiges Ergebnis: No

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Category 5 hurricane hits US before election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Category 5 hurricane hits US before election?" has generated $94.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 9, 2024. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Category 5 hurricane hits US before election?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Category 5 hurricane hits US before election?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Category 5 hurricane hits US before election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.