Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran’s reelection bid in California’s 45th Congressional District anchors trader consensus at 85% odds for a Democratic Party win, reflecting his incumbency advantage in a D+3 district encompassing competitive Orange County suburbs like Garden Grove and Westminster. The March 6 filing deadline revealed a crowded Republican primary field—featuring Westminster Mayor Chi Charlie Nguyen, councilmember Amy Phan West, veterans Tom Vo and Chuong Vo, and Mark Leonard—poised to fragment GOP votes under the state’s top-two primary on June 2. Tran holds a commanding fundraising edge with over $2.3 million cash on hand as of late 2025, dwarfing rivals, while nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball tilt Lean Democratic amid no strong GOP frontrunner emerging.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertCA-45 Wahlsieger
CA-45 Wahlsieger
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Demokratische Partei
85%
Republikanische Partei
13%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Demokratische Partei
$1,560 Vol.
85%
Republikanische Partei
$3,627 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran’s reelection bid in California’s 45th Congressional District anchors trader consensus at 85% odds for a Democratic Party win, reflecting his incumbency advantage in a D+3 district encompassing competitive Orange County suburbs like Garden Grove and Westminster. The March 6 filing deadline revealed a crowded Republican primary field—featuring Westminster Mayor Chi Charlie Nguyen, councilmember Amy Phan West, veterans Tom Vo and Chuong Vo, and Mark Leonard—poised to fragment GOP votes under the state’s top-two primary on June 2. Tran holds a commanding fundraising edge with over $2.3 million cash on hand as of late 2025, dwarfing rivals, while nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball tilt Lean Democratic amid no strong GOP frontrunner emerging.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volumen
$5,187Enddatum
Nov 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran’s reelection bid in California’s 45th Congressional District anchors trader consensus at 85% odds for a Democratic Party win, reflecting his incumbency advantage in a D+3 district encompassing competitive Orange County suburbs like Garden Grove and Westminster. The March 6 filing deadline revealed a crowded Republican primary field—featuring Westminster Mayor Chi Charlie Nguyen, councilmember Amy Phan West, veterans Tom Vo and Chuong Vo, and Mark Leonard—poised to fragment GOP votes under the state’s top-two primary on June 2. Tran holds a commanding fundraising edge with over $2.3 million cash on hand as of late 2025, dwarfing rivals, while nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball tilt Lean Democratic amid no strong GOP frontrunner emerging.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$5,187Enddatum
Nov 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran’s reelection bid in California’s 45th Congressional District anchors trader consensus at 85% odds for a Democratic Party win, reflecting his incumbency advantage in a D+3 district encompassing competitive Orange County suburbs like Garden Grove and Westminster. The March 6 filing deadline revealed a crowded Republican primary field—featuring Westminster Mayor Chi Charlie Nguyen, councilmember Amy Phan West, veterans Tom Vo and Chuong Vo, and Mark Leonard—poised to fragment GOP votes under the state’s top-two primary on June 2. Tran holds a commanding fundraising edge with over $2.3 million cash on hand as of late 2025, dwarfing rivals, while nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball tilt Lean Democratic amid no strong GOP frontrunner emerging.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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