temperature

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where users trade on the real-world outcomes of events across Climate & Science and many other topics. Prices are quoted from 0 to 100 cents and reflect the implied probability that an event will occur. Because traders put real money behind their views, Polymarket odds represent a real-time, skin-in-the-game consensus, often referred to as the "wisdom of the crowd."

A temperature prediction market lets users trade Yes or No shares on specific questions tied to temperature-related events. Each share pays out $1 if the outcome resolves in its favor, and $0 if it does not.

The Climate & Science category hosts 446 markets covering a wide range of subjects. Popular subcategories include Weather, Daily Temperature, and Space, each with its own dedicated page showing live odds, trading volume, and active markets. You can browse the full list of Climate & Science subcategories from the left-side navigation on the Climate & Science page.

Every Climate & Science market on Polymarket has outcomes priced between 0¢ and 100¢. That price is the implied probability of the outcome occurring, and prices update continuously as new information, data releases, and events move trader sentiment.

Activity is constantly shifting, but you can sort the page by 24-hour volume to see where trading is concentrated in real time.

Each Climate & Science market has a clearly defined resolution source and criteria published on the market page. When the event concludes, for example, when a result is officially reported, a deadline passes, or an authoritative source confirms the outcome, the market resolves and winning shares pay out $1 each. Markets in categories such as Elections, Economy, and Geopolitics typically rely on official government, regulatory, or primary-source reporting for resolution.

Climate & Science markets respond in real time to news, announcements, data releases, and policy shifts. A single development, such as a new poll, economic indicator, court ruling, or geopolitical event, can materially change the implied probability of an outcome.

Polymarket currently lists 446 markets in the Climate & Science category. The left-side navigation shows live market counts for each available subcategory so you can quickly see where coverage is deepest.

Yes. Most Climate & Science markets are designed to let users trade well ahead of the underlying event, from short-horizon weekly markets to long-dated markets covering outcomes months or years away.

Prediction markets and traditional forecasts, such as polls, models, or analyst estimates, are complementary tools. Because Polymarket traders are risking real capital, Climate & Science odds aggregate many participants' information and incentives into a single probability, a mechanism that has historically tracked real-world outcomes closely in domains like Elections, Economy, and Geopolitics. That said, no market is a guarantee; odds represent trader consensus at a point in time, not a prediction of what will happen.

You can browse the Climate & Science page to see active markets, open any market to view its order book and full rules, and then trade Yes or No shares once your account is funded.

temperature markets are driven by the same kinds of catalysts that move the underlying real-world story: official announcements, scheduled events and deadlines, data and reporting, and major news.

Every market card on these pages displays the current implied probability for each outcome along with trading volume. For deeper detail, including price history, the order book, and full resolution rules, click into any individual market card.