Recent polling and redistricting have driven trader consensus toward Democrat Bobby Pulido in the Texas 15th congressional district race. The district’s new boundaries, which incorporate more areas with historical Democratic support in South Texas, have narrowed the Republican edge despite the area backing Donald Trump by 18 points in 2024. Public surveys from August and September 2026 show Pulido ahead by margins of 5 to 13 points among likely voters, prompting nonpartisan forecasters including the Cook Political Report to shift the contest from Lean Republican to Toss-up. Pulido’s profile as a Tejano musician provides name recognition and crossover appeal in the heavily Hispanic district, while incumbent Republican Monica De La Cruz faces questions about constituent engagement. Early voting begins October 19 ahead of the November 3 general election, leaving room for late shifts in turnout or messaging.