Recent strong August jobs data, with 162,000 payroll gains and steady 4.1% unemployment, alongside elevated inflation readings from producer prices and energy supply disruptions tied to Middle East tensions, have fragmented trader consensus on the September 15-16, October 27-28, and December 8-9 FOMC decisions. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole have lifted near-term hike odds in futures markets, yet economist surveys still favor holds through year-end given the current 3.50%-3.75% funds rate range. This balance of resilient labor conditions against above-target PCE inflation keeps the top sequences—Pause-Pause-Pause at 20.5% and Hike-Pause-Pause at 19.0%—nearly tied, with upcoming CPI releases and the September statement likely to shift implied probabilities ahead of the next three meetings.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডPause–Pause–Pause 21%
Hike–Pause–Pause 20%
Hike–Hike–Hike 18%
Hike–Hike–Pause 17%
$22,885 Vol.
$22,885 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
14%
Hike–Pause–Pause
20%
Hike–Hike–Hike
18%
Hike–Hike–Pause
17%
Pause–Pause–Hike
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause
21%
Pause–Hike–Hike
4%
Pause–Hike–Pause
3%
Other
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause 21%
Hike–Pause–Pause 20%
Hike–Hike–Hike 18%
Hike–Hike–Pause 17%
$22,885 Vol.
$22,885 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
$1,553 Vol.
14%
Hike–Pause–Pause
$1,569 Vol.
20%
Hike–Hike–Hike
$1,462 Vol.
18%
Hike–Hike–Pause
$1,667 Vol.
17%
Pause–Pause–Hike
$1,015 Vol.
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$13,023 Vol.
21%
Pause–Hike–Hike
$1,082 Vol.
4%
Pause–Hike–Pause
$1,132 Vol.
3%
Other
$381 Vol.
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent strong August jobs data, with 162,000 payroll gains and steady 4.1% unemployment, alongside elevated inflation readings from producer prices and energy supply disruptions tied to Middle East tensions, have fragmented trader consensus on the September 15-16, October 27-28, and December 8-9 FOMC decisions. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole have lifted near-term hike odds in futures markets, yet economist surveys still favor holds through year-end given the current 3.50%-3.75% funds rate range. This balance of resilient labor conditions against above-target PCE inflation keeps the top sequences—Pause-Pause-Pause at 20.5% and Hike-Pause-Pause at 19.0%—nearly tied, with upcoming CPI releases and the September statement likely to shift implied probabilities ahead of the next three meetings.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
ভলিউম
$22,885শেষ তারিখ
Dec 9, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent strong August jobs data, with 162,000 payroll gains and steady 4.1% unemployment, alongside elevated inflation readings from producer prices and energy supply disruptions tied to Middle East tensions, have fragmented trader consensus on the September 15-16, October 27-28, and December 8-9 FOMC decisions. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole have lifted near-term hike odds in futures markets, yet economist surveys still favor holds through year-end given the current 3.50%-3.75% funds rate range. This balance of resilient labor conditions against above-target PCE inflation keeps the top sequences—Pause-Pause-Pause at 20.5% and Hike-Pause-Pause at 19.0%—nearly tied, with upcoming CPI releases and the September statement likely to shift implied probabilities ahead of the next three meetings.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ভলিউম
$22,885শেষ তারিখ
Dec 9, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...Recent strong August jobs data, with 162,000 payroll gains and steady 4.1% unemployment, alongside elevated inflation readings from producer prices and energy supply disruptions tied to Middle East tensions, have fragmented trader consensus on the September 15-16, October 27-28, and December 8-9 FOMC decisions. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole have lifted near-term hike odds in futures markets, yet economist surveys still favor holds through year-end given the current 3.50%-3.75% funds rate range. This balance of resilient labor conditions against above-target PCE inflation keeps the top sequences—Pause-Pause-Pause at 20.5% and Hike-Pause-Pause at 19.0%—nearly tied, with upcoming CPI releases and the September statement likely to shift implied probabilities ahead of the next three meetings.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা