Recent softer-than-expected August PCE inflation at 3.4% year-over-year, combined with dovish signals from New York Fed President Williams and other officials emphasizing no urgency for immediate action, has driven the 37.5% implied probability on Pause-Hike-Pause as the leading path. Markets have sharply reduced October hike odds to around 15-25% ahead of the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, with the post-September 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range and the SEP's 4.1% median dot for year-end supporting expectations of one additional move, likely in December. Trader consensus reflects the balance between above-target inflation risks and incoming data including September payrolls, while acknowledging that further labor-market softening could alter the projected rate path.