Strong August employment data showing 162,000 job gains and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, alongside elevated inflation readings driven by surging oil prices from Middle East tensions, have reinforced trader expectations for monetary policy tightening. These factors support the 59.5% implied probability of a 25-basis-point federal funds rate increase by the December FOMC meeting, as resilient labor conditions and headline CPI pressures above the 2% target reduce the case for accommodation. Recent producer price increases and hawkish signals from Chair Warsh’s communications further anchor this consensus, though incoming September CPI and labor releases could still shift odds toward the 34.5% chance of no change if inflation moderates.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড25 bps increase 60%
No change 35%
25 bps decrease 4.4%
50+ bps increase 2.5%
$636,141 Vol.
$636,141 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
4%
No change
35%
25 bps increase
60%
50+ bps increase
3%
25 bps increase 60%
No change 35%
25 bps decrease 4.4%
50+ bps increase 2.5%
$636,141 Vol.
$636,141 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$97,329 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$149,640 Vol.
4%
No change
$118,906 Vol.
35%
25 bps increase
$172,342 Vol.
60%
50+ bps increase
$97,924 Vol.
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Strong August employment data showing 162,000 job gains and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, alongside elevated inflation readings driven by surging oil prices from Middle East tensions, have reinforced trader expectations for monetary policy tightening. These factors support the 59.5% implied probability of a 25-basis-point federal funds rate increase by the December FOMC meeting, as resilient labor conditions and headline CPI pressures above the 2% target reduce the case for accommodation. Recent producer price increases and hawkish signals from Chair Warsh’s communications further anchor this consensus, though incoming September CPI and labor releases could still shift odds toward the 34.5% chance of no change if inflation moderates.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
ভলিউম
$636,141শেষ তারিখ
Dec 9, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Strong August employment data showing 162,000 job gains and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, alongside elevated inflation readings driven by surging oil prices from Middle East tensions, have reinforced trader expectations for monetary policy tightening. These factors support the 59.5% implied probability of a 25-basis-point federal funds rate increase by the December FOMC meeting, as resilient labor conditions and headline CPI pressures above the 2% target reduce the case for accommodation. Recent producer price increases and hawkish signals from Chair Warsh’s communications further anchor this consensus, though incoming September CPI and labor releases could still shift odds toward the 34.5% chance of no change if inflation moderates.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ভলিউম
$636,141শেষ তারিখ
Dec 9, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...Strong August employment data showing 162,000 job gains and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, alongside elevated inflation readings driven by surging oil prices from Middle East tensions, have reinforced trader expectations for monetary policy tightening. These factors support the 59.5% implied probability of a 25-basis-point federal funds rate increase by the December FOMC meeting, as resilient labor conditions and headline CPI pressures above the 2% target reduce the case for accommodation. Recent producer price increases and hawkish signals from Chair Warsh’s communications further anchor this consensus, though incoming September CPI and labor releases could still shift odds toward the 34.5% chance of no change if inflation moderates.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা