Recent U.S. inflation readings, including a 3.4% year-over-year CPI increase for August 2026 with core at 2.4%, combined with resilient labor market data and a September FOMC dot plot signaling expectations for one additional 25-basis-point hike by year-end, have anchored market-implied odds at the January 2027 meeting. The federal funds target range stands at 3.75–4.00% following the latest tightening move, with trader consensus reflecting a higher-for-longer stance amid above-target price pressures. Upcoming October and December 2026 meetings, along with fresh CPI and employment releases, remain key swing factors that could shift probabilities between steady policy and modest further tightening.