Major agencies have maintained stable outlooks on U.S. sovereign ratings following Moody’s May 2025 one-notch downgrade to Aa1, aligning S&P and Fitch at AA+ and removing near-term review pressure. The July 2025 debt-ceiling increase to $41.1 trillion provides substantial borrowing headroom through 2027, while the Congressional Budget Office’s February 2026 baseline projects a $1.9 trillion fiscal 2026 deficit and public debt rising gradually toward 110 percent of GDP by 2031. Traders therefore price the 64 percent implied probability for “No” on another downgrade before 2027 around the absence of abrupt policy reversals or governance deterioration beyond levels already reflected in current ratings, with the next potential catalysts limited to upcoming fiscal reports or congressional actions that could alter deficit trajectories.