residual

Joined Apr 2025·1.3K views

$4,286.78

Positions Value

$6,185.34

Biggest Win

785

Predictions

Profit/Loss

$137.25

Past Day

Current

Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Yes 90¢

868.3 shares

90¢

96.3¢

$836.16$54.78 (7.01%)

Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Yes 90¢

868.3 shares

$836.16$54.78 (7.01%)

Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?

No 57.5¢

718.8 shares

57.5¢

77¢

$553.51$140.06 (33.87%)

Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?

No 57.5¢

718.8 shares

$553.51$140.06 (33.87%)

Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?

Yes 79.9¢

605.7 shares

79.9¢

87.5¢

$530.02$45.80 (9.46%)

Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?

Yes 79.9¢

605.7 shares

$530.02$45.80 (9.46%)

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

No 65.6¢

550.0 shares

65.6¢

84.5¢

$464.75$104.04 (28.84%)

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

No 65.6¢

550.0 shares

$464.75$104.04 (28.84%)

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

No 43¢

787.6 shares

43¢

57.5¢

$452.87$114.20 (33.72%)

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

No 43¢

787.6 shares

$452.87$114.20 (33.72%)

Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?

No 94¢

400.0 shares

94¢

97.6¢

$390.20$14.20 (3.78%)

Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?

No 94¢

400.0 shares

$390.20$14.20 (3.78%)

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Yes 83.4¢

250.0 shares

83.4¢

95¢

$237.37$28.87 (13.85%)

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Yes 83.4¢

250.0 shares

$237.37$28.87 (13.85%)

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?

No 56.2¢

300.0 shares

56.2¢

67.5¢

$202.50$34.00 (20.18%)

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?

No 56.2¢

300.0 shares

$202.50$34.00 (20.18%)

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

No 74.6¢

131.8 shares

74.6¢

79.5¢

$104.78$6.45 (6.56%)

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

No 74.6¢

131.8 shares

$104.78$6.45 (6.56%)

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Yes 39¢

200.0 shares

39¢

49.5¢

$99.00$21.00 (26.92%)

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Yes 39¢

200.0 shares

$99.00$21.00 (26.92%)

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

No 62¢

100.0 shares

62¢

81.5¢

$81.49$19.49 (31.44%)

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

No 62¢

100.0 shares

$81.49$19.49 (31.44%)

Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Yes 24.7¢

646.9 shares

24.7¢

12.5¢

$80.86-$79.08 (-49.44%)

Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Yes 24.7¢

646.9 shares

$80.86-$79.08 (-49.44%)

Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?

No 44¢

150.0 shares

44¢

48.5¢

$72.75$6.75 (10.23%)

Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?

No 44¢

150.0 shares

$72.75$6.75 (10.23%)

Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?

No 78¢

60.0 shares

78¢

90¢

$53.97$7.17 (15.32%)

Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?

No 78¢

60.0 shares

$53.97$7.17 (15.32%)

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Yes 14.3¢

200.0 shares

14.3¢

23.3¢

$46.60$18.00 (62.94%)

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Yes 14.3¢

200.0 shares

$46.60$18.00 (62.94%)

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?

No 13.3¢

284.2 shares

13.3¢

16¢

$45.32$7.61 (20.18%)

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?

No 13.3¢

284.2 shares

$45.32$7.61 (20.18%)

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?

No 5.3¢

700.0 shares

5.3¢

4.6¢

$32.20-$4.90 (-13.21%)

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?

No 5.3¢

700.0 shares

$32.20-$4.90 (-13.21%)

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?

Yes 2.5¢

3,501.1 shares

2.5¢

0.1¢

$1.75-$85.78 (-98%)

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?

Yes 2.5¢

3,501.1 shares

$1.75-$85.78 (-98%)