PavtheGreat

Joined May 2026·2.7K views

$21.9K

Positions Value

$694.75

Biggest Win

280

Predictions

Profit/Loss

-$151.90

Past Day

Current

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

No 85.2¢

1,724.9 shares

85.2¢

93.5¢

$1,612.82$142.37 (9.68%)

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

No 85.2¢

1,724.9 shares

$1,612.82$142.37 (9.68%)

Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026?

No 74¢

975.0 shares

74¢

97.7¢

$952.56$231.07 (32.03%)

Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026?

No 74¢

975.0 shares

$952.56$231.07 (32.03%)

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?

No 71.9¢

1,070.0 shares

71.9¢

82.5¢

$882.75$113.85 (14.81%)

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?

No 71.9¢

1,070.0 shares

$882.75$113.85 (14.81%)

Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?

Yes 82¢

915.0 shares

82¢

82.5¢

$754.88$4.58 (0.61%)

Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?

Yes 82¢

915.0 shares

$754.88$4.58 (0.61%)

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Yes 56.5¢

1,050.0 shares

56.5¢

64.5¢

$677.25$83.66 (14.09%)

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Yes 56.5¢

1,050.0 shares

$677.25$83.66 (14.09%)

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?

No 89¢

650.0 shares

89¢

98.8¢

$642.20$63.70 (11.01%)

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?

No 89¢

650.0 shares

$642.20$63.70 (11.01%)

Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?

No 82¢

725.0 shares

82¢

84.5¢

$612.63$18.13 (3.05%)

Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?

No 82¢

725.0 shares

$612.63$18.13 (3.05%)

Will at least 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?

No 82.6¢

610.0 shares

82.6¢

99.4¢

$606.34$102.62 (20.37%)

Will at least 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?

No 82.6¢

610.0 shares

$606.34$102.62 (20.37%)

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

No 80.9¢

606.9 shares

80.9¢

99.8¢

$605.35$114.48 (23.32%)

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

No 80.9¢

606.9 shares

$605.35$114.48 (23.32%)

Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be at least 12 hours?

No 72.2¢

717.0 shares

72.2¢

83.5¢

$598.70$80.96 (15.64%)

Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be at least 12 hours?

No 72.2¢

717.0 shares

$598.70$80.96 (15.64%)

Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?

No 83¢

605.0 shares

83¢

96.2¢

$581.99$79.86 (15.9%)

Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?

No 83¢

605.0 shares

$581.99$79.86 (15.9%)

IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?

No 79¢

655.0 shares

79¢

87¢

$569.85$52.40 (10.13%)

IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?

No 79¢

655.0 shares

$569.85$52.40 (10.13%)

Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?

No 62¢

547.2 shares

62¢

98.8¢

$540.32$201.08 (59.27%)

Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?

No 62¢

547.2 shares

$540.32$201.08 (59.27%)

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

No 22¢

800.0 shares

22¢

67.5¢

$540.00$364.00 (206.82%)

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

No 22¢

800.0 shares

$540.00$364.00 (206.82%)

Will China become the #2 global art market in 2026?

No 74.8¢

592.0 shares

74.8¢

88.5¢

$523.89$80.86 (18.25%)

Will China become the #2 global art market in 2026?

No 74.8¢

592.0 shares

$523.89$80.86 (18.25%)

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

No 68¢

540.0 shares

68¢

94.5¢

$510.30$143.10 (38.97%)

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

No 68¢

540.0 shares

$510.30$143.10 (38.97%)

Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?

No 85¢

590.0 shares

85¢

83.5¢

$492.65-$8.85 (-1.76%)

Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?

No 85¢

590.0 shares

$492.65-$8.85 (-1.76%)

Will 220 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 24-August 30?

No 66¢

614.0 shares

66¢

78¢

$478.92$73.68 (18.18%)

Will 220 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 24-August 30?

No 66¢

614.0 shares

$478.92$73.68 (18.18%)

Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?

No 81¢

465.0 shares

81¢

93.5¢

$434.78$58.13 (15.43%)

Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?

No 81¢

465.0 shares

$434.78$58.13 (15.43%)

Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?

Yes 73¢

515.0 shares

73¢

83¢

$427.45$51.50 (13.7%)

Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?

Yes 73¢

515.0 shares

$427.45$51.50 (13.7%)