Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Who's out first: Benjamin Netanyahu or Yahya Sinwar?

Netanyahu

<1% chance
Polymarket

$47,313 交易量

This market will resolve to the name of the leader who leaves/is removed from power first.

This market will resolve to "Netanyahu" if Benjamin Netanyahu is out as the Prime Minister of Israel before Yahya Sinwar is out as leader of Hamas. This market will resolve to "Sinwar" if Yahya Sinwar is out as the leader of Hamas before Benjamin Netanyahu is out as the Prime Minister of Israel.

If both leaders remain in power uninterruptedly from December 26, 2023, through October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$47,313
结束日期
Oct 31, 2024
创建时间
Dec 28, 2023, 1:29 PM ET
This market will resolve to the name of the leader who leaves/is removed from power first. This market will resolve to "Netanyahu" if Benjamin Netanyahu is out as the Prime Minister of Israel before Yahya Sinwar is out as leader of Hamas. This market will resolve to "Sinwar" if Yahya Sinwar is out as the leader of Hamas before Benjamin Netanyahu is out as the Prime Minister of Israel. If both leaders remain in power uninterruptedly from December 26, 2023, through October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

已提议结果: Netanyahu

有争议

已提议结果: Sinwar

无争议

最终结果: Sinwar

警惕外部链接哦。

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Who's out first: Benjamin Netanyahu or Yahya Sinwar?

Netanyahu

<1% chance
Polymarket

$47,313 交易量

This market will resolve to the name of the leader who leaves/is removed from power first.

This market will resolve to "Netanyahu" if Benjamin Netanyahu is out as the Prime Minister of Israel before Yahya Sinwar is out as leader of Hamas. This market will resolve to "Sinwar" if Yahya Sinwar is out as the leader of Hamas before Benjamin Netanyahu is out as the Prime Minister of Israel.

If both leaders remain in power uninterruptedly from December 26, 2023, through October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$47,313
结束日期
Oct 31, 2024
创建时间
Dec 28, 2023, 1:29 PM ET
This market will resolve to the name of the leader who leaves/is removed from power first. This market will resolve to "Netanyahu" if Benjamin Netanyahu is out as the Prime Minister of Israel before Yahya Sinwar is out as leader of Hamas. This market will resolve to "Sinwar" if Yahya Sinwar is out as the leader of Hamas before Benjamin Netanyahu is out as the Prime Minister of Israel. If both leaders remain in power uninterruptedly from December 26, 2023, through October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

已提议结果: Netanyahu

有争议

已提议结果: Sinwar

无争议

最终结果: Sinwar

警惕外部链接哦。