USGS monitoring shows no magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquakes worldwide in 2026 to date, with the largest events being a M7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and M7.4 near Japan on April 20—neither qualifying under market criteria sourced from the agency's significant earthquakes list. Trader consensus at 84.5% for "No" reflects the scientific reality that short-term earthquake forecasting remains impossible, as no reliable precursors exist for megaquakes on megathrust faults or other systems. Globally, M8+ events average about one annually, making the remaining seven-week window to June 30 improbable without anomalous seismic swarms, which current data from the Pacific Ring of Fire and elsewhere lacks. Odds could shift with new USGS reports, but baseline rarity dominates sentiment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于6月30日前发生大地震？
6月30日前发生大地震？
是
$64,357 交易量
$64,357 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$64,357 交易量
$64,357 交易量
2026-06-30
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS monitoring shows no magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquakes worldwide in 2026 to date, with the largest events being a M7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and M7.4 near Japan on April 20—neither qualifying under market criteria sourced from the agency's significant earthquakes list. Trader consensus at 84.5% for "No" reflects the scientific reality that short-term earthquake forecasting remains impossible, as no reliable precursors exist for megaquakes on megathrust faults or other systems. Globally, M8+ events average about one annually, making the remaining seven-week window to June 30 improbable without anomalous seismic swarms, which current data from the Pacific Ring of Fire and elsewhere lacks. Odds could shift with new USGS reports, but baseline rarity dominates sentiment.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市场开放时间： Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
交易量
$64,357结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS monitoring shows no magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquakes worldwide in 2026 to date, with the largest events being a M7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and M7.4 near Japan on April 20—neither qualifying under market criteria sourced from the agency's significant earthquakes list. Trader consensus at 84.5% for "No" reflects the scientific reality that short-term earthquake forecasting remains impossible, as no reliable precursors exist for megaquakes on megathrust faults or other systems. Globally, M8+ events average about one annually, making the remaining seven-week window to June 30 improbable without anomalous seismic swarms, which current data from the Pacific Ring of Fire and elsewhere lacks. Odds could shift with new USGS reports, but baseline rarity dominates sentiment.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$64,357结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...USGS monitoring shows no magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquakes worldwide in 2026 to date, with the largest events being a M7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and M7.4 near Japan on April 20—neither qualifying under market criteria sourced from the agency's significant earthquakes list. Trader consensus at 84.5% for "No" reflects the scientific reality that short-term earthquake forecasting remains impossible, as no reliable precursors exist for megaquakes on megathrust faults or other systems. Globally, M8+ events average about one annually, making the remaining seven-week window to June 30 improbable without anomalous seismic swarms, which current data from the Pacific Ring of Fire and elsewhere lacks. Odds could shift with new USGS reports, but baseline rarity dominates sentiment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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