Global seismic records from the USGS indicate magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquakes occur roughly 1–2 times annually on average, establishing a low base rate for the remaining one-month window to June 30. Current monitoring shows no elevated activity or unusual advisories in major subduction zones such as Cascadia, Japan Trench, or South America, consistent with the market-implied 90.5% probability on “No.” Recent events include a 2025 M8.8 in Kamchatka and several M7.4s in early 2026, but none approaching megaquake thresholds. While unpredictable rupture on locked faults remains possible, the absence of foreshock clusters or model consensus for imminent intensification supports trader consensus favoring no event by resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于6月30日前发生大地震？
6月30日前发生大地震？
是
$68,651 交易量
$68,651 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$68,651 交易量
$68,651 交易量
2026-06-30
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic records from the USGS indicate magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquakes occur roughly 1–2 times annually on average, establishing a low base rate for the remaining one-month window to June 30. Current monitoring shows no elevated activity or unusual advisories in major subduction zones such as Cascadia, Japan Trench, or South America, consistent with the market-implied 90.5% probability on “No.” Recent events include a 2025 M8.8 in Kamchatka and several M7.4s in early 2026, but none approaching megaquake thresholds. While unpredictable rupture on locked faults remains possible, the absence of foreshock clusters or model consensus for imminent intensification supports trader consensus favoring no event by resolution.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市场开放时间： Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
交易量
$68,651结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic records from the USGS indicate magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquakes occur roughly 1–2 times annually on average, establishing a low base rate for the remaining one-month window to June 30. Current monitoring shows no elevated activity or unusual advisories in major subduction zones such as Cascadia, Japan Trench, or South America, consistent with the market-implied 90.5% probability on “No.” Recent events include a 2025 M8.8 in Kamchatka and several M7.4s in early 2026, but none approaching megaquake thresholds. While unpredictable rupture on locked faults remains possible, the absence of foreshock clusters or model consensus for imminent intensification supports trader consensus favoring no event by resolution.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$68,651结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Global seismic records from the USGS indicate magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquakes occur roughly 1–2 times annually on average, establishing a low base rate for the remaining one-month window to June 30. Current monitoring shows no elevated activity or unusual advisories in major subduction zones such as Cascadia, Japan Trench, or South America, consistent with the market-implied 90.5% probability on “No.” Recent events include a 2025 M8.8 in Kamchatka and several M7.4s in early 2026, but none approaching megaquake thresholds. While unpredictable rupture on locked faults remains possible, the absence of foreshock clusters or model consensus for imminent intensification supports trader consensus favoring no event by resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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