Trader consensus on a 78.5% implied probability of no megaquake—defined as magnitude 9.0 or greater—by June 30 aligns with USGS data showing global seismicity at normal levels, with no precursory signals like foreshock swarms or accelerated strain in subduction zones such as Cascadia, Japan, or Sumatra. Recent developments include tapering aftershocks from January's M7.6 Noto Peninsula quake and a M6.3 event off Hokkaido on June 2, neither escalating toward mega status per official monitoring. Megaquakes occur roughly once every 20-50 years historically, and short-term prediction remains impossible due to complex tectonic dynamics. USGS weekly reports confirm no heightened alerts, with the market eyeing final days absent anomalies, though geological surprises can't be ruled out.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于6月30日前发生大地震？
6月30日前发生大地震？
是
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2026
是
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on a 78.5% implied probability of no megaquake—defined as magnitude 9.0 or greater—by June 30 aligns with USGS data showing global seismicity at normal levels, with no precursory signals like foreshock swarms or accelerated strain in subduction zones such as Cascadia, Japan, or Sumatra. Recent developments include tapering aftershocks from January's M7.6 Noto Peninsula quake and a M6.3 event off Hokkaido on June 2, neither escalating toward mega status per official monitoring. Megaquakes occur roughly once every 20-50 years historically, and short-term prediction remains impossible due to complex tectonic dynamics. USGS weekly reports confirm no heightened alerts, with the market eyeing final days absent anomalies, though geological surprises can't be ruled out.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市场开放时间： Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on a 78.5% implied probability of no megaquake—defined as magnitude 9.0 or greater—by June 30 aligns with USGS data showing global seismicity at normal levels, with no precursory signals like foreshock swarms or accelerated strain in subduction zones such as Cascadia, Japan, or Sumatra. Recent developments include tapering aftershocks from January's M7.6 Noto Peninsula quake and a M6.3 event off Hokkaido on June 2, neither escalating toward mega status per official monitoring. Megaquakes occur roughly once every 20-50 years historically, and short-term prediction remains impossible due to complex tectonic dynamics. USGS weekly reports confirm no heightened alerts, with the market eyeing final days absent anomalies, though geological surprises can't be ruled out.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$0结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on a 78.5% implied probability of no megaquake—defined as magnitude 9.0 or greater—by June 30 aligns with USGS data showing global seismicity at normal levels, with no precursory signals like foreshock swarms or accelerated strain in subduction zones such as Cascadia, Japan, or Sumatra. Recent developments include tapering aftershocks from January's M7.6 Noto Peninsula quake and a M6.3 event off Hokkaido on June 2, neither escalating toward mega status per official monitoring. Megaquakes occur roughly once every 20-50 years historically, and short-term prediction remains impossible due to complex tectonic dynamics. USGS weekly reports confirm no heightened alerts, with the market eyeing final days absent anomalies, though geological surprises can't be ruled out.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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