Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability to no megaquake (magnitude 8.0 or greater on the moment magnitude scale) by June 30 because such events remain statistically rare on monthly timescales, with global averages of roughly one to two per year according to long-term USGS catalogs. Recent monitoring reinforces this consensus: a magnitude 7.4–7.7 subduction-zone event off northeastern Japan in April 2026 triggered a temporary Japan Meteorological Agency advisory that raised the short-term megaquake odds only to about 1% (ten times background levels but still low in absolute terms), and no subsequent M8+ activity has materialized anywhere on the planet. Model consensus from agencies including the USGS shows no anomalous strain accumulation or foreshock sequences meeting resolution thresholds, while historical recurrence intervals for major megathrust segments far exceed the remaining 30-day window. New observational data from continuous seismic networks could still shift odds if an unexpected precursor emerges, yet current evidence favors the market's strong “No” positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于6月30日前发生大地震？
6月30日前发生大地震？
是
$68,652 交易量
$68,652 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$68,652 交易量
$68,652 交易量
2026-06-30
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability to no megaquake (magnitude 8.0 or greater on the moment magnitude scale) by June 30 because such events remain statistically rare on monthly timescales, with global averages of roughly one to two per year according to long-term USGS catalogs. Recent monitoring reinforces this consensus: a magnitude 7.4–7.7 subduction-zone event off northeastern Japan in April 2026 triggered a temporary Japan Meteorological Agency advisory that raised the short-term megaquake odds only to about 1% (ten times background levels but still low in absolute terms), and no subsequent M8+ activity has materialized anywhere on the planet. Model consensus from agencies including the USGS shows no anomalous strain accumulation or foreshock sequences meeting resolution thresholds, while historical recurrence intervals for major megathrust segments far exceed the remaining 30-day window. New observational data from continuous seismic networks could still shift odds if an unexpected precursor emerges, yet current evidence favors the market's strong “No” positioning.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市场开放时间： Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
交易量
$68,652结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability to no megaquake (magnitude 8.0 or greater on the moment magnitude scale) by June 30 because such events remain statistically rare on monthly timescales, with global averages of roughly one to two per year according to long-term USGS catalogs. Recent monitoring reinforces this consensus: a magnitude 7.4–7.7 subduction-zone event off northeastern Japan in April 2026 triggered a temporary Japan Meteorological Agency advisory that raised the short-term megaquake odds only to about 1% (ten times background levels but still low in absolute terms), and no subsequent M8+ activity has materialized anywhere on the planet. Model consensus from agencies including the USGS shows no anomalous strain accumulation or foreshock sequences meeting resolution thresholds, while historical recurrence intervals for major megathrust segments far exceed the remaining 30-day window. New observational data from continuous seismic networks could still shift odds if an unexpected precursor emerges, yet current evidence favors the market's strong “No” positioning.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$68,652结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability to no megaquake (magnitude 8.0 or greater on the moment magnitude scale) by June 30 because such events remain statistically rare on monthly timescales, with global averages of roughly one to two per year according to long-term USGS catalogs. Recent monitoring reinforces this consensus: a magnitude 7.4–7.7 subduction-zone event off northeastern Japan in April 2026 triggered a temporary Japan Meteorological Agency advisory that raised the short-term megaquake odds only to about 1% (ten times background levels but still low in absolute terms), and no subsequent M8+ activity has materialized anywhere on the planet. Model consensus from agencies including the USGS shows no anomalous strain accumulation or foreshock sequences meeting resolution thresholds, while historical recurrence intervals for major megathrust segments far exceed the remaining 30-day window. New observational data from continuous seismic networks could still shift odds if an unexpected precursor emerges, yet current evidence favors the market's strong “No” positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题