Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 78.5% implied probability to "No" megaquake—defined as magnitude 9.0+ on the moment magnitude scale—by June 30, driven by the extreme historical rarity of such events and absence of precursory seismic activity in key subduction zones like Cascadia, Nankai Trough, and Peru-Chile per USGS real-time monitoring. Globally, only about one M9+ quake occurs per decade on average since 1900, with no reliable short-term forecasting possible due to complex fault mechanics. Recent developments, including the M7.6 Tonga event on May 30 and lack of escalation after Japan's Nankai advisory was lifted in early April, reinforce this positioning amid normal seismic baselines. Watch USGS updates for any sudden swarms or slow-slip detections that could prompt rapid shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于6月30日前发生大地震？
6月30日前发生大地震？
是
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2026
是
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 78.5% implied probability to "No" megaquake—defined as magnitude 9.0+ on the moment magnitude scale—by June 30, driven by the extreme historical rarity of such events and absence of precursory seismic activity in key subduction zones like Cascadia, Nankai Trough, and Peru-Chile per USGS real-time monitoring. Globally, only about one M9+ quake occurs per decade on average since 1900, with no reliable short-term forecasting possible due to complex fault mechanics. Recent developments, including the M7.6 Tonga event on May 30 and lack of escalation after Japan's Nankai advisory was lifted in early April, reinforce this positioning amid normal seismic baselines. Watch USGS updates for any sudden swarms or slow-slip detections that could prompt rapid shifts.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市场开放时间： Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 78.5% implied probability to "No" megaquake—defined as magnitude 9.0+ on the moment magnitude scale—by June 30, driven by the extreme historical rarity of such events and absence of precursory seismic activity in key subduction zones like Cascadia, Nankai Trough, and Peru-Chile per USGS real-time monitoring. Globally, only about one M9+ quake occurs per decade on average since 1900, with no reliable short-term forecasting possible due to complex fault mechanics. Recent developments, including the M7.6 Tonga event on May 30 and lack of escalation after Japan's Nankai advisory was lifted in early April, reinforce this positioning amid normal seismic baselines. Watch USGS updates for any sudden swarms or slow-slip detections that could prompt rapid shifts.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$0结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 78.5% implied probability to "No" megaquake—defined as magnitude 9.0+ on the moment magnitude scale—by June 30, driven by the extreme historical rarity of such events and absence of precursory seismic activity in key subduction zones like Cascadia, Nankai Trough, and Peru-Chile per USGS real-time monitoring. Globally, only about one M9+ quake occurs per decade on average since 1900, with no reliable short-term forecasting possible due to complex fault mechanics. Recent developments, including the M7.6 Tonga event on May 30 and lack of escalation after Japan's Nankai advisory was lifted in early April, reinforce this positioning amid normal seismic baselines. Watch USGS updates for any sudden swarms or slow-slip detections that could prompt rapid shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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