Heightened strategic rivalry between Israel and Turkey, focused on influence in post-Assad Syria and the eastern Mediterranean, has produced sharp rhetoric, diplomatic ruptures, and economic countermeasures from Ankara, including airspace closures and legal actions against Israeli officials. No direct military encounters between the two forces have occurred in recent months, however, amid structural incentives for restraint such as Turkey’s NATO membership and both sides’ preference for proxy competition or diplomatic posturing over open conflict. Traders reflect this pattern in assigning an 85% probability to no clash before the end of 2026, consistent with the absence of escalatory incidents and historical precedent favoring de-escalation despite periodic tensions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$214,669 交易量
$214,669 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$214,669 交易量
$214,669 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Heightened strategic rivalry between Israel and Turkey, focused on influence in post-Assad Syria and the eastern Mediterranean, has produced sharp rhetoric, diplomatic ruptures, and economic countermeasures from Ankara, including airspace closures and legal actions against Israeli officials. No direct military encounters between the two forces have occurred in recent months, however, amid structural incentives for restraint such as Turkey’s NATO membership and both sides’ preference for proxy competition or diplomatic posturing over open conflict. Traders reflect this pattern in assigning an 85% probability to no clash before the end of 2026, consistent with the absence of escalatory incidents and historical precedent favoring de-escalation despite periodic tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ET
交易量
$214,669结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Heightened strategic rivalry between Israel and Turkey, focused on influence in post-Assad Syria and the eastern Mediterranean, has produced sharp rhetoric, diplomatic ruptures, and economic countermeasures from Ankara, including airspace closures and legal actions against Israeli officials. No direct military encounters between the two forces have occurred in recent months, however, amid structural incentives for restraint such as Turkey’s NATO membership and both sides’ preference for proxy competition or diplomatic posturing over open conflict. Traders reflect this pattern in assigning an 85% probability to no clash before the end of 2026, consistent with the absence of escalatory incidents and historical precedent favoring de-escalation despite periodic tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$214,669结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Heightened strategic rivalry between Israel and Turkey, focused on influence in post-Assad Syria and the eastern Mediterranean, has produced sharp rhetoric, diplomatic ruptures, and economic countermeasures from Ankara, including airspace closures and legal actions against Israeli officials. No direct military encounters between the two forces have occurred in recent months, however, amid structural incentives for restraint such as Turkey’s NATO membership and both sides’ preference for proxy competition or diplomatic posturing over open conflict. Traders reflect this pattern in assigning an 85% probability to no clash before the end of 2026, consistent with the absence of escalatory incidents and historical precedent favoring de-escalation despite periodic tensions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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