Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 20°C in Wellington on April 11, 2026, driven by official observations from Wellington International Airport (NZWN station), the market's resolution source via Weather Underground finalized data. Late-afternoon readings peaked at 19-20°C under high cloud cover and light northerlies, aligning with MetService and NIWA model consensus that capped intensification amid diminishing sunlight; earlier forecasts of 22°C proved optimistic as cooler sea breezes moderated peaks. This reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of real-time METAR reports and hourly data, consistent with April climatology averaging 17°C highs. Realistic challenges include rare post-sunset measurement revisions or overlooked microsite warming, though improbable given current cooling to 16°C and market nearing resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Wellington on April 11?
Highest temperature in Wellington on April 11?
20°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$256,840 交易量
$256,840 交易量
2026-04-11
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C or higher
No
20°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$256,840 交易量
$256,840 交易量
2026-04-11
13°C or below
$7,884 交易量
No
14°C
$14,635 交易量
No
15°C
$7,579 交易量
No
16°C
$12,340 交易量
No
17°C
$22,984 交易量
No
18°C
$29,530 交易量
No
19°C
$35,609 交易量
No
20°C
$45,853 交易量
Yes
21°C
$39,680 交易量
No
22°C
$21,905 交易量
No
23°C or higher
$18,841 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 20°C in Wellington on April 11, 2026, driven by official observations from Wellington International Airport (NZWN station), the market's resolution source via Weather Underground finalized data. Late-afternoon readings peaked at 19-20°C under high cloud cover and light northerlies, aligning with MetService and NIWA model consensus that capped intensification amid diminishing sunlight; earlier forecasts of 22°C proved optimistic as cooler sea breezes moderated peaks. This reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of real-time METAR reports and hourly data, consistent with April climatology averaging 17°C highs. Realistic challenges include rare post-sunset measurement revisions or overlooked microsite warming, though improbable given current cooling to 16°C and market nearing resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 7, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
交易量
$256,840结束日期
2026-04-11市场开放时间
Apr 7, 2026, 12:32 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 20°C in Wellington on April 11, 2026, driven by official observations from Wellington International Airport (NZWN station), the market's resolution source via Weather Underground finalized data. Late-afternoon readings peaked at 19-20°C under high cloud cover and light northerlies, aligning with MetService and NIWA model consensus that capped intensification amid diminishing sunlight; earlier forecasts of 22°C proved optimistic as cooler sea breezes moderated peaks. This reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of real-time METAR reports and hourly data, consistent with April climatology averaging 17°C highs. Realistic challenges include rare post-sunset measurement revisions or overlooked microsite warming, though improbable given current cooling to 16°C and market nearing resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$256,840结束日期
2026-04-11市场开放时间
Apr 7, 2026, 12:32 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 20°C in Wellington on April 11, 2026, driven by official observations from Wellington International Airport (NZWN station), the market's resolution source via Weather Underground finalized data. Late-afternoon readings peaked at 19-20°C under high cloud cover and light northerlies, aligning with MetService and NIWA model consensus that capped intensification amid diminishing sunlight; earlier forecasts of 22°C proved optimistic as cooler sea breezes moderated peaks. This reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of real-time METAR reports and hourly data, consistent with April climatology averaging 17°C highs. Realistic challenges include rare post-sunset measurement revisions or overlooked microsite warming, though improbable given current cooling to 16°C and market nearing resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题