Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 12°C at Istanbul Airport (LTFM) on April 17, driven by official NOAA observational data showing peak readings around 54°F (12°C) amid persistent cloud cover, light rain, and northerly winds gusting to 15-20 km/h that suppressed daytime heating. Morning temperatures hovered near 9-11°C under overcast skies, with little solar insolation to drive warming beyond this level, aligning with recent model outputs from ECMWF and GFS that anticipated cool, unsettled conditions from a low-pressure system over the Black Sea. As evening sets in with dropping temperatures to 10°C and clearing unlikely before midnight, resolution appears certain; only an anomalous late-afternoon sensor revision upward could challenge this, though airport METAR reports confirm stability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 17?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 17?
12°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$57,910 交易量
$57,910 交易量
2026-04-17
8°C or below
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
Yes
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C or higher
No
12°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$57,910 交易量
$57,910 交易量
2026-04-17
8°C or below
$2,667 交易量
No
9°C
$1,786 交易量
No
10°C
$4,144 交易量
No
11°C
$13,566 交易量
No
12°C
$5,631 交易量
Yes
13°C
$8,487 交易量
No
14°C
$9,609 交易量
No
15°C
$4,716 交易量
No
16°C
$3,430 交易量
No
17°C
$1,862 交易量
No
18°C or higher
$2,011 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 12°C at Istanbul Airport (LTFM) on April 17, driven by official NOAA observational data showing peak readings around 54°F (12°C) amid persistent cloud cover, light rain, and northerly winds gusting to 15-20 km/h that suppressed daytime heating. Morning temperatures hovered near 9-11°C under overcast skies, with little solar insolation to drive warming beyond this level, aligning with recent model outputs from ECMWF and GFS that anticipated cool, unsettled conditions from a low-pressure system over the Black Sea. As evening sets in with dropping temperatures to 10°C and clearing unlikely before midnight, resolution appears certain; only an anomalous late-afternoon sensor revision upward could challenge this, though airport METAR reports confirm stability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 15, 2026, 12:22 AM ET
交易量
$57,910结束日期
2026-04-17市场开放时间
Apr 15, 2026, 12:22 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 12°C at Istanbul Airport (LTFM) on April 17, driven by official NOAA observational data showing peak readings around 54°F (12°C) amid persistent cloud cover, light rain, and northerly winds gusting to 15-20 km/h that suppressed daytime heating. Morning temperatures hovered near 9-11°C under overcast skies, with little solar insolation to drive warming beyond this level, aligning with recent model outputs from ECMWF and GFS that anticipated cool, unsettled conditions from a low-pressure system over the Black Sea. As evening sets in with dropping temperatures to 10°C and clearing unlikely before midnight, resolution appears certain; only an anomalous late-afternoon sensor revision upward could challenge this, though airport METAR reports confirm stability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$57,910结束日期
2026-04-17市场开放时间
Apr 15, 2026, 12:22 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 12°C at Istanbul Airport (LTFM) on April 17, driven by official NOAA observational data showing peak readings around 54°F (12°C) amid persistent cloud cover, light rain, and northerly winds gusting to 15-20 km/h that suppressed daytime heating. Morning temperatures hovered near 9-11°C under overcast skies, with little solar insolation to drive warming beyond this level, aligning with recent model outputs from ECMWF and GFS that anticipated cool, unsettled conditions from a low-pressure system over the Black Sea. As evening sets in with dropping temperatures to 10°C and clearing unlikely before midnight, resolution appears certain; only an anomalous late-afternoon sensor revision upward could challenge this, though airport METAR reports confirm stability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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