Official observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) confirm Istanbul's highest temperature on April 15, 2026, reached exactly 12°C at primary stations, driving the market-implied 100% consensus on this outcome and rendering 20°C or higher impossible. This aligns with MGM's prior weekly forecast of temperatures falling 2–4°C below seasonal norms (typically 15–16°C highs) due to a low-pressure system ushering cooler continental air and cloud cover suppressing daytime heating. Pre-event ECMWF model ensembles had hinted at low-teens maxima, but verified measurements solidified trader positioning. Scenarios challenging this would require unprecedented data revisions from MGM reanalysis, though post-validation protocols make such shifts negligible.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于4月15日伊斯坦布尔气温最高？
4月15日伊斯坦布尔气温最高？
12°C 100.0%
10°C或以下 <1%
11°C <1%
13°C <1%
$120,752 交易量
$120,752 交易量
2026-04-15
10°C或以下
否
11°C
否
12°C
是
13°C
否
14°C
否
15°C
否
16°C
否
17°C
否
18°C
否
19°C
否
20°C或更高
否
12°C 100.0%
10°C或以下 <1%
11°C <1%
13°C <1%
$120,752 交易量
$120,752 交易量
2026-04-15
10°C或以下
$4,994 交易量
否
11°C
$7,284 交易量
否
12°C
$12,585 交易量
是
13°C
$4,752 交易量
否
14°C
$3,924 交易量
否
15°C
$10,982 交易量
否
16°C
$33,383 交易量
否
17°C
$26,373 交易量
否
18°C
$12,612 交易量
否
19°C
$905 交易量
否
20°C或更高
$2,958 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) confirm Istanbul's highest temperature on April 15, 2026, reached exactly 12°C at primary stations, driving the market-implied 100% consensus on this outcome and rendering 20°C or higher impossible. This aligns with MGM's prior weekly forecast of temperatures falling 2–4°C below seasonal norms (typically 15–16°C highs) due to a low-pressure system ushering cooler continental air and cloud cover suppressing daytime heating. Pre-event ECMWF model ensembles had hinted at low-teens maxima, but verified measurements solidified trader positioning. Scenarios challenging this would require unprecedented data revisions from MGM reanalysis, though post-validation protocols make such shifts negligible.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 13, 2026, 12:19 AM ET
交易量
$120,752结束日期
2026-04-15市场开放时间
Apr 13, 2026, 12:19 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) confirm Istanbul's highest temperature on April 15, 2026, reached exactly 12°C at primary stations, driving the market-implied 100% consensus on this outcome and rendering 20°C or higher impossible. This aligns with MGM's prior weekly forecast of temperatures falling 2–4°C below seasonal norms (typically 15–16°C highs) due to a low-pressure system ushering cooler continental air and cloud cover suppressing daytime heating. Pre-event ECMWF model ensembles had hinted at low-teens maxima, but verified measurements solidified trader positioning. Scenarios challenging this would require unprecedented data revisions from MGM reanalysis, though post-validation protocols make such shifts negligible.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$120,752结束日期
2026-04-15市场开放时间
Apr 13, 2026, 12:19 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Official observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) confirm Istanbul's highest temperature on April 15, 2026, reached exactly 12°C at primary stations, driving the market-implied 100% consensus on this outcome and rendering 20°C or higher impossible. This aligns with MGM's prior weekly forecast of temperatures falling 2–4°C below seasonal norms (typically 15–16°C highs) due to a low-pressure system ushering cooler continental air and cloud cover suppressing daytime heating. Pre-event ECMWF model ensembles had hinted at low-teens maxima, but verified measurements solidified trader positioning. Scenarios challenging this would require unprecedented data revisions from MGM reanalysis, though post-validation protocols make such shifts negligible.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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